Market Overview

The global cumulative mobile-phone subscriptions in 2021 were 8,284,960 thousand cases. China and India, the largest markets in the world, were in downtrend, and the markets in advanced countries except for the US were saturated. On the other hand, mobile phone subscriptions in Africa and Latin America continued growing. Despite the commencement of 5G services, it did not invigorate the market. The global mobile telecommunications services remained being 4G-main structure.

The estimated global cumulative mobile-phone subscriptions in 2022 are expected to expand to 8,487,230 thousand cases. Because of multiple factors such as the continued corona crisis, slowdown in Chinese economy, and Russian invasions to Ukraine, the growth of mobile phone subscriptions is decelerating.

The 2021 global shipment volume of smartphones was 1,276,340 thousand units. The volume in China, the largest market, dropped significantly due to saturated market and economic slowdown, but that in ASEAN, African countries, and India was on the rise. Affected by the corona crisis and the US-China disputes which caused supply-chain disruptions, the shipment volume of smartphones became sluggish.

The global shipment volume of smartphones in 2022 is expected to be 1,164,660 thousand units, 91.2% on a YoY basis. In addition to the above-mentioned factors, the anxieties in energy supplies and inflation caused by the Ukraine situations as well as the zero-COVID policy in China having locked down the cities seems to have reduced the shipment volume of smartphones from the previous-year results.

By 2030 the smartphone shipment volume is projected to reach 1,550,000 thousand units. As migration to 5G smartphones in progress in the market, not only all smartphones are expected to fully support 5G, but 6G-support smartphones are also likely to be shipped by 2030.

Noteworthy Topics

Trends in Base Stations and in Mobile Terminal Market in Russia

As a part of sanctions to Russia for its invasions to Ukraine, SAMSUNG and Apple, the first and second largest market-share holders, withdrew from the Russian mobile phone market. In addition, Google that provides Android OS, and mobile-phone base station manufacturers, ERICSSON and NOKIA, had already withdrawn.

On the other hand, Chinese manufacturers continued being involved in the Russian market, making it highly possible for Chinese manufacturers, such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, HUAWEI, and Honor, to occupy the mobile terminal market. Furthermore, as Android OS became unavailable, Chinese manufacturers are regarded to involve in reconstructing OS platforms and in supplying base stations including 5G. As a result, the Russian market is highly likely to be dominated by Chinese companies in the future.

Future Outlook

Although the introduction of 5G is expected to revitalize the global smartphone market, the introduction of 5G is expected to be slow, except for some markets such as China and the US, making the 4G LTE network development to take place in parallel until 2025. Nevertheless, for smartphones, 5G-responsive types are expected to spread. After around 2025, smartphones responsive to 5G Evolution, an advanced form of 5G, are projected to become the mainstream, with the advent of 6G-reponsive products around 2030.

Research Outline