Market Overview

In this market report, "paper packaging" encompasses six types of packaging: corrugated boxes, paperboard boxes, paper cups, liquid packaging cartons, paper bags, and molded pulp products (wet-press molded pulp products). The domestic market size of paper packaging (six categories) reached 1,951,345 million yen in FY2024, representing 2.2% growth from the previous fiscal year. The market is projected to expand further in FY2025 by 1.8% to reach 1,986,830 million yen.

Over the past few years, escalating prices have led to a contraction in consumer spending, resulting in generally subdued demand for paper packaging. Conversely, business performance of converters in FY2024 was underpinned by robust sales of budget-friendly private-label goods (chiefly food items) and instant foods sold at supermarkets and convenience stores. Additionally, heightened cost-consciousness sustained steady demand for fast-food, mitigating broader declines in the paper packaging market. This trend is projected to persist in FY2025, with demand expected to remain resilient, though potentially expanding at a more moderate pace. 

As the majority of converters have been passing on the costs for fuel, logistics, and labor on end price from FY2022, unit price of paper packaging products has been increasing year on year, subsequently expanding market size by amount. This trend is expected to persist in FY2025. 

Noteworthy Topics

Trend Analysis by End Use

The six types of paper packaging can be categorized by end use (functionality) into “outer packaging (corrugated boxes and paper bags)”, “secondary packaging (paperboard boxes)”, and “primary packaging (paper cups and liquid carton packaging)”.

Based on value metrics (production, shipment, and sales), outer and secondary packaging together account for just over 80% of the total market. Overall, the market is exhibiting a growth trend, with all three segments expanding at a relatively similar pace and no significant disparity among them. However, an analysis of changes in composition ratios over recent years indicates that primary packaging is growing more strongly than the other segments.

In contrast, when the market is assessed in terms of volume (weight), primary packaging has shown flat to moderate growth, while outer and secondary packaging have experienced a decline. Although volume growth for primary packaging remains modest, it appears relatively resilient compared with historical industry trends, as these products directly contain the end products.

Future Outlook

The domestic paper packaging market (as a total of six types of packaging) in FY2026 is projected to reach 2,047,530 million yen, up by 3.1% from the previous fiscal year.
 
Market volatility has remained elevated in recent years, largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking ahead to FY2026 and beyond, structural factors such as population decline, demographic shifts (including an aging population and declining birthrate), and ongoing efforts across end-use industries to reduce packaging for cost efficiency are expected to constrain further growth in the packaging market. As a result, sustained expansion of the paper packaging market is unlikely.

At the same time, rising fuel costs—driven in part by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions—along with persistently high labor expenses, partly associated with ongoing workstyle reforms, continue to exert upward pressure on manufacturing costs. Under these conditions, it is anticipated that manufacturers will continue to pass on these cost increases through higher selling prices in FY2026. Consequently, the paper packaging market is projected to reach approximately 2 trillion yen.  

Research Outline