Market Overview

The research forecasted the total market size of five domestic employment services through FY2040. The five markets are temporary staffing, white-collar job recruiting, outplacement services, job information services, and gig work staffing and platforms. Two scenarios were provided for the market size forecast: status quo and AI empowerment. The forecast focused on job displacement caused by the prevalence of AI tools and the growing use of robotics, and the labor mobility among middle-aged and senior workers.
Based on service provider sales, the total market size of the five domestic employment services is projected to reach 11.4525 trillion yen under the status quo scenario, and 13.979 trillion yen under the AI empowerment scenario.

Noteworthy Topics

Workstyle of Seniors and Demand from Companies

Many seniors are motivated to work primarily to be part of society, in addition to financial reasons. Therefore, they prefer flexible work arrangements, such as part-time jobs with shorter hours or short-term assignments of two to three days per week. Since temporary staffing services can meet these conditions, there is high demand for them. Gig work is also expanding.
Currently, corporate demand for senior workers is increasing, due to shortages of young workers and workers with specific skills. There is a particularly high demand for IT legacy technology experts, skilled construction industry craftsmen, and top-tier salespeople with a network of major company executives.
The negative impact of AI proliferation on senior employment is currently limited. However, demand for white-collar back-office work and management positions is expected to shrink by FY2040, due to replacement by AI.

Future Outlook

If the reskilling status of middle-aged and senior workers remains the same (status quo), the employment service markets are projected to experience a downturn after FY2035.
Corporate demand for white-collar jobs, including back-office work and administrative duties, is expected to shrink due to an increase in AI-driven job replacements. Conversely, there will be a greater demand for AI enablers, which are professionals who enable and implement the efficient use of AI and/or robotics. In the long run, improving the talent supply is crucial to expanding the employment service market. This can be achieved by providing extensive training programs for temporary staff at temporary staffing service providers, and reskilling programs for middle-aged and senior workers at various employment service providers.

Research Outline