Market Overview

Based on sales of businesses, the frozen dough, bread, and roll market reached 202.849 billion yen in FY2024, marking a 4.0% increase from the previous year. The market, amid labor shortages, continued to grow, driven by the demand for labor-saving solutions. Demand for frozen dough and bread has increased due to their processing versatility and as a solution to the difficulty of securing skilled bakers and cooks. Adoption of frozen baked bread and dough has especially increased in bakeries within supermarkets, food service operations, and lodging facilities, because these products can be served immediately after thawing and baking, eliminating the need for fermentation processes.

Demand for frozen dough and bread is also growing among food service and accommodation businesses, driven by a surge in inbound customers and recovering domestic spending. The market’s core channel is in-store bakeries within mass merchandisers. These are complemented by other retail bakeries, including small, community-based bakery chains and street-facing bakeries, which sell store-baked products directly to consumers. The supply chain also includes hotels, and food service operators, including restaurants. 

Noteworthy Topics

Labor Shortages Drive Adoption of Frozen Baked Goods

Stricter labor shortages have significantly altered manufacturing cost structures. Traditionally, breadmaking processes included fermenting and baking molded frozen doughs and ordinary doughs at the bakery. However, containing labor costs has become a priority for bakeries due to the difficulty of securing skilled artisans or workers.

As processing procedures increase, so do production and material costs for bread. In the current situation where labor shortages and rising labor costs coincide, bread manufacturers are forced to select highly processed materials, even if it means accepting higher raw material costs.

These changes in production cost structures have made highly processed materials more prevalent due to their ability to facilitate easier production processes and shorter manufacturing times. These materials are recognized as a means of maintaining stable store operations rather than merely as material options.

Future Outlook

The frozen dough, bread, and rolls market is expected to reach 232.85 billion yen by FY2029, marking a 14.8% increase from FY2024. The market is expected to grow by around 2 to 3% from FY2025 to FY2029, while the domestic bread market appears to plateau.  

Frozen semi-baked doughs and frozen baked products continue to drive this growth. This growth is fueled by factors including increased accommodations for surging inbound tourism, recovering of dining demand, and chronic labor shortages. Hotels, restaurants, and other food service providers are expected to rely more on these highly processed materials, which enable labor savings and a stable supply. However, rising material and logistics costs are a growing concern. Nevertheless, strong demand for maintaining breadmaking and cooking operations is expected to continue supporting the market.

Research Outline