Summary of Research Findings

On account of continuous growth of "stay-at-home consumption", the corrugated fiberboard market showed growth in 2022, mostly in the fields that were impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. In addition to the increase of people’s flow propelled by the relaxation of activity restrictions, with the lift of strict border measures in the latter half of the year, rapid recovery of inbound demand for medical drugs, detergents, and cosmetics (which was in the doldrums during the pandemic) contributed to the market growth.

On the other hand, against the backdrop of soaring fuel prices and yen depreciation that led to the rise in prices of consumer goods including foods, fall of the consumer confidence became notable around the summer. As consumers cut back their spending, the demand for corrugated cardboard, especially for processed foods, started to slow down around the autumn.

With persistent negative impact from the previous year, the demand for corrugated cardboard remains weak in 2023. Another reason for the sluggishness is the end of demand hike for corrugated packaging associated with the “stay-at-home consumption” that underpinned the demand for corrugated fiberboards in the last several years. This owes to the downgrading of COVID-19 categorization to Class 5 under the Act of Preventing Infectious Diseases in May have freed people to go out more again (thus offered more opportunities to spend outside of home). Moreover, the demand for souvenirs is still weak as well, despite the industry’s hope for recovery.

In addition, although inbound demand is recovering rapidly, it has not stimulated demand recovery for corrugated cardboard, due to the consumer trend of shifting from ‘thing’ to ‘experience’, as well as to slow recovery in the number of Chinese tourists, who are the leading purchasers of ‘things’ in Japan. Since the impact of high prices is expected to continue for the time being, the industry cannot avoid reducing production volume of corrugated fiberboard in 2023.

Noteworthy Topics

Price of Containerboard Apt to Decline Despite Two Times of Passing Cost Through to End Price

Soaring prices of raw materials and fuels, as well as a sharp rise in production costs due to depreciation of yen, have led containerboard manufacturers to raise their prices twice in 2022, in spring and in fall. Consequently, corrugated fiberboard manufacturers passed-through the cost to end users for two consecutive years, in 2022 and 2023. The price revisions have resulted in higher market prices of containerboards and corrugated fiberboard products (corrugated fiberboard sheets and boxes).

On the other hand, however, due to weakened domestic demand for corrugated fiberboards and a sharp drop in export of containerboards, inventory of containerboard is reaching all-time high, creating the undertone that the market has excessive supplies. In addition, the market price of old corrugated cardboard used as raw material of corrugated fiberboard is dropping from fall of 2022, in relation to a decline in demand for corrugated fiberboard in China due to Zero-COVID policy. Although containerboard manufacturers adjust the amount of production to balance supply and demand, if the price of containerboard declines, it may have a ripple effect on the market for corrugated fiberboard products.

Research Outline