Market Overview

Based on the sales of businesses, the frozen dough, bread, and rolls market reached 180,566 million yen in FY2022, 104.1% of the size of the previous fiscal year. The market used to be brisk until the end of 2019 due to demand expansion at stores and facilities without any fermenting machines such as café chains, restaurants, bridal (banquet) venues, karaoke parlors, theme parks, etc., before rapid shrinkage in 2020 due to the pandemic. After reclassification of COVID-19 to class 5 infectious disease, normalization of social and economic activities, recovery of accommodation and sightseeing demands by inbound tourism, and continuous soaring labor cost have encouraged the market size to close in on the level before COVID.

Noteworthy Topics

Expanding Sales Channels for Frozen Doughs, Bread, and Rolls

The online sales of frozen dough, bread, and rolls have gradually increased. In addition to manufacturers selling directly through their websites, sales via e-commerce marketplaces have also increased. Especially, frozen dough, bread, and roll manufacturers, who previously sold wholesale to businesses, have increasingly opened their own online shops to target consumers. Furthermore, sales channels are expanding beyond the internet, as businesses selling frozen baked goods through vending machines have emerged.

Future Outlook

Based on the sales of businesses, the size of the frozen dough, bread, and rolls market is projected to reach 208,957 million yen by FY2027. Following the sudden upturn after the end of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow 2-3% annually after FY2024. In an aging society with fewer children, however, the bread and roll market is likely to level off in the long run. The convenience of frozen, semi-baked or baked bread and rolls will likely drive growth in the frozen dough, bread, and roll market as chronic labor shortages increase demand from businesses in the hotel, restaurant, and food service industries.

Research Outline