Market Overview

In addition to electric vehicles (xEVs: HEVs [hybrid electric vehicles], PHEVs [plug-in hybrid electric vehicles], BEVs [electric vehicles], and FCEVs [fuel cell electric vehicles]) that are being developed to achieve carbon neutrality, electrification in the domains of powertrain, chassis, and vehicle body is also advancing for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to improve fuel economy, comply with emission regulations, enhance comfort/convenience, and increase safety/security.

Installation of automotive motors is increasing rapidly in line with the progress in electrification of vehicle components. The global market for automotive motors in 2022 was estimated at 3,138.89 million units, 102.7% of the previous year, based on the number of new car sales. Inventory of new cars recovered in 2022 as automobile production resumed with the ease of issues like semiconductor shortages, and it led to an increase in the demand for automotive motors.

Driven by the increase of vehicle inventory, which owes to the ease of parts shortage that caused production curtailment at automakers, the global auto sales* is forecasted to grow from 2023. Meanwhile, the negative impact of high prices, rising inflation rate, and interest rate hike is forecasted to continue intermittently on global basis. Global vehicle sales are projected to reach 96.86 million units by 2030 and 104.29 million units by 2035, as a consequence of demand recovery in Europe, U.S., and China, as well as of the growth of sales volume in emerging countries where population is booming.

*The number of global auto sales is estimated by Yano Research Institute based on the data at manufacturer associations of each country.

Noteworthy Topics

Emerging OEMs in the U.S. and China Lead Technology Trends in BEVs Through Early Adoption of New Technologies

Along with the penetration of BEVs, the market launch of SiC e-Axles and X-in-1 type e-Axles (which integrates on-board chargers, DC-DC converters, and battery management systems), as well as the adoption of EMB (electro-mechanical brake system) and SBW (steer-by-wire system) for motors of chassis domain are expected to accelerate around 2025 for next-generation vehicles.

In the domain of next-generation vehicles, e-Axles that integrate motors, inverters, and gears into a single unit are installed already and have become the mainstream product for xEVs. Emerging Chinese OEMs (automobile manufacturers) are developing X-in-1 type e-Axles to reduce cost, size, and weight. Conventional OEMs in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. are also embarking on the development of X-in-1 type, while also seeking the adoption of Electrically Excited Synchronous Motor (EESM) from the standpoint of reducing environmental impact.

In the chassis domain, the shift to drive-by-wire vehicle, which uses brakes and steering controlled by electricity instead of mechanical cable connections, is advancing for the purpose of improving safety through integrated control. Although it was anticipated at the time of the survey (at the end of 2021) that emerging OEMs in the U.S. and China will start installing EMBs and SBWs from around 2030, the adoption of EMB is expected to make earlier start in around 2025.

While it has been pointed out that EMBs and SBWs have fewer user benefits and are excessively high performance, manufacturers are seemingly adopting them in preparation for the installation of high-performance hardware for upcoming AD/ADAS (automated driving/advanced driver assistance systems) with OTA (over the air). The situation indicates that, by aggressively incorporating new technologies, the emerging OEMs in the U.S. and China are leading the technological trend while conventional OEMs in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. follow their footsteps.

Future Outlook

In spite of the risks such as supply chain disruption led by the US-China decoupling, sales volumes of automobiles are expected to rise, especially in Europe, the U.S., China, and emerging countries. The trend of vehicle electrification is expected to boost the demand for automotive motors for next-generation vehicles, such as main motors and electric compressors.

Under these circumstances, with aggressive forecast assuming a scenario where the demand for automotive motor expands for next-generation vehicles (mainly for BEVs) backed by the trend of vehicle electrification, as well as for the increase of chassis and body with improved safety and comfort, the global demand volume of automotive motors is expected to grow to 6,307.46 million units by 2035.

With conservative forecast, which assumes a scenario that soaring car prices stemming from battery price hike slows down the trend of vehicle electrification, suppressing the demand for automotive motors for chassis/body domain for the purpose of improving comfort, the global demand volume for automotive motors is projected to attain 5,787.67 million units by 2035.

Research Outline