Excerpt from the foreword to Market Share in Japan 2025 (written in March 2025)

 

Concerns Raised Over Growing Social Control                               

Three months into the second Trump administration, his supporters cheer his political stance—notable for a series of controversial positions such as disregard for the sovereignty of other nations, skepticism and indifference toward climate change, rejection of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), withdrawal from international organizations, and hostile tariff policies. Supporters’ reactions symbolize the downturn of the United States.

History is simply repeating itself: the “former majorities” left behind by the times are rallying around and elevating an exclusionary, authoritarian leader. Concurrently, pressure on opposing voices and restrictions on free speech are escalating, just like a “well-worn script.”

News organization that refused to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America was barred from restricted press events and denied access to the Oval Office. The second Black chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the first female Chief of Naval Operations were both removed from their posts. Also, the U.S. Department of Defense identified a photo of the Enola Gay—the B-29 bomber that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima—for potential removal from its website, reportedly because the name includes the word “gay,” referring to homosexual men. In addition, a famous photo of U.S. Marines raising the Stars and Stripes on the battlefield of Iwo Jima was taken down from a website dedicated to U.S. military history, due to the fact that one of the Marines in the photo is a Native American. (The removal was later retracted. See note* below.)

Companies are falling in line with the right. Walmart, Amazon, Ford, McDonald’s, and many others have announced the termination of their DEI programs, while Meta has even halted the operation of its fact-checking program. Major financial institutions have steadily withdrawn from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), an international financial framework promoting decarbonization. Japan’s mega-bank groups, too, have followed suit, despite claiming that they will “continue contributing to solutions to global environmental issues.”

Deference, anticipatory adaptation, and conformity— all directed toward authoritarian power, coupled with self-preservation…. Now I see how society gradually comes to face in the same direction.

 

Are high tariffs a good move or a bad one for the U.S.?                         

On March 17, the OECD lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points from its projection at the end of last year, to 3.1%. The revision reflects the enactment of Trump’s tariff actions. While the OECD warned of an “urgent need to restore open international trade,” prospects for normalization remain dim as China and Europe move to retaliate against the United States.

The Japanese economy is also facing growing uncertainty. The government’s growth forecast, announced at the end of last year, projected a 1.2% increase, anticipating that domestic demand would drive growth through improved consumer spending. However, with prices continuing to soar and real wages stuck in negative growth, household consumption is subject to significant downward pressure. On top of this came the rollout of Trump’s tariffs. Last year, Japan’s total exports reached a record high of 107.0912 trillion yen. The largest export destination was the United States at 21.2 trillion yen, followed by China at 18.8 trillion yen. These two countries, currently locked in serious conflict, together account for 40% of Japan’s total exports. While Japan’s main export item to the U.S. is automobiles, semiconductor manufacturing equipment is the leading export to China—both items are strategic goods for their respective destinations. This makes Japan especially vulnerable to the economic fallout from U.S.- China tensions.

Meanwhile, it is unlikely that the Trump’s tariff action will be the decisive factor in making U.S. industry great again. The already implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as the additional tariffs on Chinese products, are naturally driving up costs within the United States, posing significant disadvantages not only for consumers but also for industry.

Of course, higher tariffs may provide an incentive to attract foreign direct investment. And yet, it is extremely difficult to restructure domestic supply chains, either in quantity or quality, once they have been hollowed out. Furthermore, it is even less likely that U.S. manufacturers will be able to reduce labor costs to globally competitive levels while simultaneously pursuing restrictive immigration policies. Fundamentally, using tariffs to protect domestic industries and foster export-oriented sectors is a strategy typically employed by developing countries. First of all, the United States has already accumulated vast capital and intellectual property in industries such as finance and insurance, IT, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, entertainment, and aerospace. In addition, the strength of the U.S. dollar—firmly supported by massive domestic demand—is undeniable. In short, the United States has more than enough wealth to keep buying up low-priced, high-quality products from other countries. In the end, it may well be the so-called “former majority” who suffer the most from the resulting cost increases.

 

Turning the U.S.'s “weak spots” into opportunities                             

High tariffs are undoubtedly a disadvantage for export-oriented firms. Supportive measures should be implemented to mitigate temporary declines in sales and profits. However, U.S. domestic industries are similarly affected by the sudden rise in costs. If that is the case, a “wait-and-see” approach may be the most prudent course of action. Diplomacy is not something we, as ordinary citizens, are directly involved in, but even if we had any influence, there would be almost nothing we could do as long as “he” is the counterpart. In this sense, we need not fear unpredictable changes in the external environment whether in terms of duration, content, or targets.

The global impact of the United States is significant due to its pursuit of policies that reject decarbonization, downplay diversity, reduce support for developing countries, turn away from free trade, and abandon the spirit of international cooperation. However, such policy shifts also indicate a weakening of leadership of the U.S. across these key domains. In fact, the U.S. will be “vulnerable” in multiple aspects over the next four years. For other countries, the essence of strategy lies in how to take advantage of those weaknesses and exploit the vulnerabilities exposed. China is likely to exploit these weaknesses and for Japan—including the “yen” itself—this could be a prime opportunity to restore its presence on the global stage.

The term “international community” has become completely meaningless owing to the blatant double standards of the United States even though it has long assumed its role as the dominant leader of the world. At this juncture, what is required is to view the world from a future-oriented perspective that extends beyond the next four years, envision the desired role within that future, and develop concrete strategies to put that vision into action. Above all, it is essential to redefine the core values of your company that must not be compromised. In other words, global strategies should be redesigned through a thoughtful consideration of the company’s ultimate reason for existing in society.

According to reports, there is a movement within the Republican Party toward enabling a third term for President Trump, effectively reneging on the current system of term limits. If a sitting president were to sign a law allowing the extension of their own time in office, it would mark a pivotal moment for the future of the United States. The precedents set by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, who have paved the way for long-term rule and monopolized political power, offer a clear illustration of the kinds of social outcomes that could follow.
On March 19, the U.S. Department of Defense stated that “in following the Trump administration’s policy, some photos were mistakenly targeted for removal,” including those of the Enola Gay and Iwo Jima*. The ability to respond and make corrections remains intact, and this speaks to the resilience of the United States.

See details of Market Share in Japan 2025

 

This Week’s Focus, March 2025
Takashi Mizukoshi, the President