On February 9, Japan’s Ministry of Finance released its preliminary balance of payments statistics for 2025, showing that the country’s current account surplus reached a record JPY 31.880 trillion for the second consecutive year.

The main driver was a sharp increase in primary income, which rose 4.7% year on year to JPY 41.590 trillion, reflecting higher returns on overseas direct investment, including dividends from foreign subsidiaries.

By contrast, Japan’s trade and services balance remained in deficit. The trade balance recorded a shortfall of JPY 848.7 billion, although the deficit narrowed by JPY 2.8115 trillion from the previous year. Exports rose 2.5% to JPY 107.763 trillion, supported by strong demand for semiconductor components and food products, while imports edged down 0.1% to JPY 108.612 trillion due to lower energy prices.

The services balance posted a deficit of JPY 3.393 trillion. Surpluses in travel (JPY 6.343 trillion) and intellectual property, including anime and other content (JPY 3.173 trillion), were more than offset by payments for digital services to major global technology platforms. As a result, the combined trade and services balance recorded a deficit of JPY 4.241 trillion.

According to the “FY2025 Survey on Business Conditions of Japanese-Affiliated Companies Overseas” conducted by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), 66.5% of Japanese-affiliated companies overseas expect to be profitable in 2025, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year. Among large enterprises, the figure exceeds 70%. By region, 83.3% of companies in the United Arab Emirates expect to post profits, and more than 75% in Australia, South Korea, Brazil, South Africa, and India anticipate remaining in the black.

Meanwhile, in the United States and Mexico—both affected by tariffs introduced under the Trump administration—as well as in China and Indonesia, where economic growth has remained sluggish, more than 30% of firms expect a decline in operating profits. Even so, over 60% of companies in these markets still expect to remain profitable. In other words, Japan’s balance of payments structure—earning substantially through primary income—remains unchanged.

At a time when confidence in free trade appears to be waning, industrial policy debates are increasingly framed in terms of “economic security.” Indeed, in recent years, uncertainties and risks associated with overseas investment have become more visible: the pandemic, sudden political and economic shifts in partner countries, and heightened geopolitical tensions. For small and medium-sized enterprises that find it difficult to diversify suppliers and sales channels, or for companies unable to bear the rising costs of operating in emerging markets, the decision to withdraw may be unavoidable.

However, reshoring alone does not solve every problem. Expanding one’s presence in the global economy can itself serve as a strategic form of business continuity planning (BCP) and, in that sense, as an investment in economic security. Ultimately, it is the strengthening of profitability at the individual corporate level that forms the foundation of national economic security as a whole.

Takashi Mizukoshi, the President
This Week’s Focus, February 8–12, 2026