(The original article in Japanese was posted on November 27, 2020)

Economic activities that have slowed down due to COVID-19 pandemic are on the way to recovery with the exception of some industries. Current Japanese economy is led by foreign demand, especially by Chinese economy. Regarding production volume of automobiles in China, TOYOTA has increased by 50% this September, HONDA by 30%, and NISSAN remained almost the same, over the same period of the previous year. The number of orders received of machine tools for China upturned this June on a YoY basis, and the trend of increase by more than 50% still continues since this July. According to Trade Statistics of Japan of October 2020 (prompt report) by Ministry of Finance, export to China increased by 10.2%, an expansion for 4 consecutive months. Export to all countries decreased by 0.2%, which diminished the negative growth of 4.9% in the previous month.

Under the current concerns over the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic, what supports Japanese economy is China’s purchasing power. In the period of January to March 2020, Japan faced “China Risk” which is a heavy supply-chain dependence on China for component materials, products, and so forth. This time, China’s role as a purchaser has been enhanced. Being a supplier and being a customer qualitatively differ. It is hardly possible to implement “China Plus One,” a strategy to decentralize China-based business and find a country that can substitute for the market with 1.4 billion population. In this sense, there is a possibility that dependence on China will be strengthened more than ever.

Pope Francis’ book will be published on December 1. In this book, he expresses his concern for the situation of human rights in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region for the first time. Vatican City State (Roman Curia) and China ruptured their diplomatic relations in 1951, while Vatican still maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Since then, Vatican and China had been opposing each other over the right to appoint bishops in China, but they signed the tentative agreement with a fixed term in 2018, and finally managed to extend it in October 2020. It is said that Pope Francis had not been mentioning about the problem on human rights until now based on his political thought to make the negotiation advantageous.

On the other hand, China’s purpose of normalizing diplomatic relations with Vatican is to make Vatican accept the “One-China” principle. For this reason, China’s attitude of opposition is inevitable and the tentative agreement may possibly be cancelled. It is unsure how much Vatican will take the risk against China. Pope Francis touched on the problem on human rights even with the risk because he, as a religionist, could not allow himself to overlook the problem anymore.

On November 24, Yi Wang, Foreign Minister of China, came to Japan and anew confirmed strengthening of partnership with Japan in taking measures for economy, climate change, and COVID-19. On the other hand, with regard to territories and human rights, each party did not go any further than expressing their own thought. Of course, both have political matters to prioritize immediate profits. However, such an unhealthy relationship that does not conform to the principle may put the whole nation at risk in the future. It is imperative to reconsider the principle and the position of our nation once again.

This Week’s Focus, November 27, 2020

Takashi Mizukoshi, the President