The 2024 U.S. presidential election has concluded with a decisive victory for Donald Trump. For his opponent, Kamala Harris, her political career at the heart of the Biden administration became a liability. Moreover, her background as a woman of African and Asian descent unintentionally reinforced Trump’s argument that "it is the majority, specifically white workers, who are being left behind."

What has become clear is the deeply entrenched frustrations within American society, where disparities and conflicts of interest across class, generation, gender, race, religion, education, and region intertwine. Trump's emotionally charged and straightforward slogan, Make America Great Again, resonated as if it were a universal message. The election revealed a democracy vulnerable to the sway of fervent enthusiasm, where the line between truth and falsehood seemed inconsequential.

The world now braces for Trump’s return. His promise to "end wars immediately" raises concerns about the imposition of compromises by dominant forces. Trump, who has long championed oil and gas extraction with his slogan "Drill, Baby, Drill," is unlikely to hesitate in withdrawing from the Paris Agreement once again. On economic and trade policy, however, much remains uncertain. Looking back at the first Trump administration, while it successfully renegotiated NAFTA and withdrew from the TPP, the 45% tariff on Chinese imports was reduced to only about half, and the deportation of three million immigrants was not carried out. With high tariffs and labor shortages driving inflation, it is unclear how and when Trump’s extreme campaign promises will translate into policy. For now, the trajectory of his administration is truly “unpredictable.”

Over the next four years, U.S. diplomacy is likely to prioritize bilateral deals and negotiations, emphasizing relative gains. This approach could exacerbate global divisions and heighten geopolitical risks. However, if the U.S. continues to focus inwardly on America First policies, such as reshoring manufacturing and pursuing decarbonization, Japan could seize a golden opportunity to lead in international cooperation and trade. Still, the U.S.’s ability to act with foresight and position itself for long-term influence on the global stage remains a defining strength. One thing is certain: the next four years will be anything but predictable.

This Week’s Focus, November 3 – November 7

Takashi Mizukoshi, the President