On April 24, the Population Strategy Council, chaired by Akio Mimura, who is also the honorary chairman of Nippon Steel Corporation, released a report stating that “40% of all municipalities in Japan, namely 744 municipalities, are at risk of disappearing.”, once again alerting people to the problem of population decline. This council defines municipalities that will have less than half of the female population aged 20 to 39, the primary age group at childbearing, in 30 years between 2020 and 2050, as “municipalities at risk of disappearing,” and it calculated the potential for each municipality to disappear based on the latest “Regional Population Projections for Japan” provided by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS).

In 2014, ten years ago, the Japan Policy Council, chaired by Hiroya Masuda, who is also the vice chairman of the Population Strategy Council, stated that “50 percent of all municipalities in Japan, namely 896 municipalities, are likely to disappear.” On the other hand, according to the “revised version” of the report, released this time, the “risk of disappearing” of 239 municipalities has been eliminated. This result shows that administrative measures and steady efforts in the local communities achieved a certain degree of success in the “survival” of the municipality. However, 99 municipalities, including 33 municipalities in Fukushima, where the effects of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident still remain, have been newly designated as “municipalities at risk of disappearing,” and the real intention of the report is that “The trend of a falling birthrate has not changed.”

In fact, the total population in Japan is decreasing much faster than expected. According to the data provided by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), the annual number of births in Japan in 2023 was 758,631, reaching the lowest figure ever recorded, for eight consecutive years, and the number of marriages in Japan in the same year also fell below 500,000 for the first time in the post-war period, namely 489,281 couples. As of April 2023, the IPSS projected that “The number of births in 2023 will be 762,000, and after that, it will gradually decline, but it will not go down to below 760,000 at least until 2035.” The decline has been progressing faster than projected, bringing the result of “12 years earlier” in just one year. That is, what is meant by the “decrease in the number of municipalities at risk of disappearing” is the migration of population, or in other words, the competition to get a “limited piece of the pie.”

The population decrease will directly result in the shrinkage of domestic demand. In addition, it will accelerate the distortion in society that is already becoming apparent. According to the Housing and Land Survey, conducted by the Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), as of 2018, there were 3.49 million vacant houses not being used for a long period. If this figure increases at this rate, the number will double by 2040. The expansion of areas where people have difficulty in shopping will sharply increase the number of people facing physical difficulty in accessing food. The deterioration in the quality of universal services, such as public infrastructure, is also a concern. Regional disparities in employment, education, and culture are also becoming more serious. In short, “the minimum standards of wholesome and cultured living,” as stipulated in the Article 25 of the Constitution of Japan, which should be guaranteed to all citizens, is threatened. The Population Strategy Council aims to have a “stable population of 80 million by 2100.” Each of us needs to consider how to achieve this and how society should be by that time as personal matters, and society as a whole is required to be prepared for the future.

This Week’s Focus, April 26

Takashi Mizukoshi, the President