Market Overview

The market size of Japanese and Western-style confectionery and desserts for FY2024 as a total of Japanese confectionery, Western-style confectionery, desserts (yogurt, custard pudding, jelly, or other chilled desserts) and frozen desserts (ice creams, other frozen snacks) was estimated at 2,521,600 million yen, up by 4.0% from the preceding fiscal year (based on the shipment value of manufacturers).

The market experienced a robust expansion in FY2023, maintaining upward momentum despite widespread price hikes. This growth was primarily fueled by a post-pandemic recovery in tourism and a significant resurgence in the souvenir sector. However, FY2024 saw a deceleration in growth. While market conditions remained largely consistent with the previous year, the "revenge consumption" phenomenon began to plateau. This cooling of demand, coupled with a natural correction following the prior year's surge, resulted in a more measured growth rate.

Inbound demand remained powerful, driving exceptional sales growth for some recognized brands. Conversely, domestic-oriented brands faced a notable decline in sales volume. While total revenue for these brands remained stable due to higher unit pricing, the drop in volume highlights a shift in local purchasing behavior. As economic pressures persist, there is a marked shift toward frugal consumption. Whether purchasing for personal use or as a gift, consumers are increasingly discerning, prioritizing "value for money" and the critical balance between price, quality, and volume.

Noteworthy Topics

Trends by Channel

In FY2024, the market remained heavily concentrated in high-traffic retail channels, with mass merchandisers maintaining a leading position. They accounted for 35.5% of the market, followed by convenience stores at 19.0% and department stores at 16.3%. Other channels included specialty and free-standing stores (including those within shopping centers) at 5.8%, in-station stores and station buildings at 4.0%, airports at 3.9%, highway parking and service areas at 1.0%, and mail order at 5.0%. The remaining 9.5% was attributed to other channels, including corporate demand.

In FY2024, the confectionery and desserts market achieved a 4.0% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by sector-wide price adjustments. However, performance was uneven across different retail channels, reflecting consumer frugality. Consumers are less likely to visit independent sweets shops unless they have a specific intent to purchase. Nonetheless, they are still purchasing confectionery and desserts at mass merchandisers and convenience stores as part of their daily shopping routines.

Future Outlook

Driven by rising input costs—including raw materials, energy, and labor—product prices have increased, pushing the market size of Japanese and Western-style confectionery and desserts to an estimated 2,583,900 million yen in FY2025, representing a 2.5% year-on-year increase. Growth across product categories was largely price-driven rather than volume-based, reflecting broad-based price hikes rather than higher sales quantities.

In FY2025, demand was further supported by Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai. In addition, prolonged heatwaves boosted consumption, particularly in the frozen dessert segment.

Research Outline