Market Overview

"Phase Free" is a disaster preparedness concept that does not distinguish between everyday life and an emergency. Phase Free merchandise and services are designed to generate value and function under both conditions. In the event of a disaster, these products and services help people maintain their daily lives and handle the situation as an extension of daily operations. The initiative aims to minimize disaster impacts and promote safer, more sustainable community development.
In 2019, the Phase Free Association introduced a certification program for products, services, and facilities that align with the Phase Free initiative.

This research study estimated the Phase Free merchandise market based on the retail value of certified Phase Free products. The market size reached 23.2 billion yen in FY2024, which is a 25.4% increase from the previous fiscal year.
This growth is due to favorable sales of existing products that were redefined as Phase Free certified. These products are everyday items, such as stationery, household goods, kitchen items, and appliances. Market expansion was also driven by the diversification of sales channels, which expanded from direct sales and wholesale to include ecommerce, and by the growing popularity of the Phase Free concept among consumers. These changes generate new consumer activities that address disaster preparedness in everyday life. 

The Phase Free Certification Program has spread to various industries and businesses, including food, furniture, housing, and public facilities. As of December 2024, the Phase Free Association reported that there were approximately 100 certified products, a number that continued to grow in 2025 and beyond. In addition to consumers adopting the concept into their consumption activities, enterprises and municipalities are also adopting it as a business continuity plan.
As Phase Free-certified products are expected to spread to various genres, companies are likely to be enthusiastic about acquiring certification. This is expected to further expand the Phase Free merchandise retail market.

Noteworthy Topics

From Public Measures to New Standards

In recent years, the effectiveness of public measures in municipalities has been questioned as they face structural challenges such as a smaller number of children, an aging society, a shrinking population, and fiscal constraints. In this context, the new Phase Free concept, which prepares for disasters naturally as part of daily life rather than distinguishing between everyday life and an emergency, is spreading nationwide.

This is evident in the increasing number of administrations and municipalities incorporating the Phase Free concept into order placement specifications and total planning. The value of incorporating disaster preparedness in everyday life is easily understood and supported by a wide range of people, not limited to specific population. Therefore, it is becoming the new standard for organizing urban policies and public infrastructure. This will likely create incentives for private companies to develop and produce Phase Free-certified products, leading to mass production and penetration.

Future Outlook

The domestic Phase Free merchandise retail market is expected to reach 31.5 billion yen in FY2025, marking a 35.8% year-over-year increase, and 47.0 billion yen in FY2026, marking a 49.2% year-over-year increase.
The period between FY2025 and FY2026 is a transitional period during which the concept will prevail from private companies to the public sector and from individuals to organizations. This is because of improved awareness of and credibility in the Phase Free Certification Program, and the certification of a wider range of products from everyday items to public facilities. Additionally, more companies are embracing the idea that disaster preparedness generates value rather than cost.

In a society where the Phase Free concept is well-established, people can manage their daily lives and respond to situations as part of an extension of daily operations. Consequently, society can minimize the impact of disasters and promote safer, more sustainable community development. As usable merchandise and services increase, the Phase Free concept is expected to evolve from a disaster prevention option into the future culture regardless of age, disability status, or family composition.

Research Outline