Summary of Research Findings

The market for containerboard and boxboard packaging experienced another shrinkage in 2024, influenced by weak consumer spending in the face of high prices, a transition to lower GSM (grams per square meter) paper, and an overall movement towards minimizing packaging and wrapping. Graphic papers, which include newsprint as well as printing and communication paper, also faced a significant downturn, primarily due to ongoing digitization and cost-reduction strategies employed by user companies. On the other hand, exports have increased, supported by the extended depreciation of the yen, even while domestic demand remains weak. Although total shipments of paper and paperboard (which encompass both domestic sales and exports) are expected to fall in 2024, the decline is projected to be more gradual than that of the prior year.

 

Noteworthy Topics

Price Rose Across the Board Again in Autumn 2024 / What Is the Projected Demand for Paper and Pulp in 2025?

Amid sluggish demand, the continued rise in production costs led to another round of price increases for many paper and paperboard products in 2024. However, the immediate impact on demand within the year is expected to be limited, as price hikes were introduced late in the year and some manufacturers opted not to raise prices at this time. Still, demand may weaken further after spring 2025, when printing and processing companies are likely to begin fully passing on these cost increases to their clients.
Considering the persistent requirement for business restructuring and operational enhancement, additional price adjustments for various product categories are probable, as producers have minimal options apart from increasing prices.

While the economy is expected to recover moderately in 2025, the risk remains for an economic downturn associated with sluggish consumption stemming from the slowdown in overseas economies and high prices. Therefore, although some improvement can be expected, we believe the environment surrounding the paper industry will not change substantially. If the aforementioned price revisions considerably impact the demand for paper and paperboard, another drop in total shipments (domestic plus exports) is probable in 2025.

Research Outline