Market Overview

The size of alcoholic drinks market in FY2022 grew to 104.0% of the previous fiscal year to 3,235 billion yen, showing a year-on-year growth for the first time in 9 years since FY2013. The main reason for the upturn was the recovery of commercial demand. As Japan ended its quasi-state of emergency in March 2022, which banned the availability of alcoholic beverages at food services, customer traffic gradually restored, and consequently the consumption of alcoholic drinks with high commercial demand such as beer and whisky increased.

However, at-home consumption of alcoholic beverages, which was fueled by the voluntary staying-at-home during the COVID crisis, began to decline as outing for drinking increased. Despite years of growth, sales of low-alcoholic drinks shrank for the first time in 15 years. Furthermore, as makers increased sales promotion on regular beers in response to the 2023 revision of the Liquor Tax Law (which reduced tax on regular beers while raising tax on beer-like beverages), sales of less focused products, such as ‘new genre beers’ intended primarily for home consumption, were hampered.

On top of that, the market expansion of FY2022 is only a comparison against FY2021, when the country was amidst the pandemic. The market has not returned to the pre-pandemic level of FY2019.

 

Noteworthy Topics

Trends of Non-alcoholic Beverages Market

Growing interest in health consciousness has shed the light on the idea of "sober curious", a term that refers to an attitude of people that opt not to drink even if they can. As the trend has accelerated during the COVID crisis, opportunities to drink non-alcoholic beverages are increasing.

The market size of non-alcoholic beer-tase drinks (non-alcoholic beer drinks) in FY2022 has turned to worse for the first time since its first product launch in 2009. Nonetheless, this is most likely a temporary drop, a recoil of the double-digit growth seen in FY2021 led by a rise of health consciousness during the pandemic. We believe the market is still growing.

Moreover, although the non-alcoholic beverages market originally indicated non-alcoholic beers, in the last couple of years non-alcoholic products other than beer flavor are increasing. Non-alcoholic RTD (ready to drink) is a prime example. Demand is flowing from beer to low-alcohol beers, from low-alcohol beers to non-alcoholic RTD. Even though the market of non-alcoholic RTD is still small compared to the non-alcoholic beers market, it is growing for sure.


 

Future Outlook

The overall trajectory of the alcoholic drinks (liquor) market in FY2023, particularly for items intended for commercial use, is encouraging. The summer's unprecedented heat wave has increased growth, providing a tailwind for beer consumption. On the other hand, demand for alcoholic beverages intended for home use is predicted to fall to the level of FY2022, as consumers cut back on spending due to inflation concerns caused by repeated price hikes in foods, including alcoholic beverages. All-in-all, the total alcoholic drinks (liquor) market in FY2023 is expected to show a slight year-on-year growth to 3,255 billion yen (100.6% of FY2022) as the reduction of tax on beer propels consumption, while price revisions increase the total market size by value.


 

Research Outline