Summary of Research Findings

For the recent logistics trend in Japan, while the domestic freight transport volume is on a gradual decline, robust online retailing (ecommerce) market is fueling last mile delivery logistics*. The logistics market for 2030 is anticipated to see rise of logistics expenses, increase in traffic volume of freight vehicles and in the volume dealt at last mile delivery (indicating increase in the frequency of delivery). On the other hand, what concerned are declining consumption on account of decreasing population, shrinking production at domestic manufacturing industries (mainly because of increased offshoring), and shortage of truck drivers who cover most of domestic transport. Labor shortage in logistics industry is particularly pressing and will be far severer in 2030 than today. Therefore, healthy growth of logistics industry depends on how to improve labor productivity, streamline logistics, and structurally reform. Based on the above, here suggests some challenges to tackle at logistics businesses and some specific directions for them to follow hereafter:

Measures against Labor Shortage
In addition to introduction of unmanned methods such as self-driving trucks, delivery robots, delivery drones, etc., freight transport (including both long-distance transportation and home delivery) is needed to streamline by means of cooperative logistics, relay trucking, and use of gigantic trucks, etc. To do this, cooperative alliance among companies concerned is important, thereby to be able to build integrated logistics system in entire supply chain involving manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. To accelerate such an alliance across companies, it is necessary to integrate the optimized information among individual companies in the logistics system, and to standardize and digitalize the work processes. These efforts are expected to bring about reviewing and improving of labor conditions (wages and working hours) for drivers, which may eventually contribute to solving the labor shortage issues in the future.

Utilization of Technologies, Promotion of Digitalization
Pressing ahead with digitalization of analog processes is needed such as by deployment of a warehouse execution system that combines management and controlling of warehouses, a vehicle allocation system that manages incoming and outcoming of trucks to a warehouse, and warehousing robots that operate each warehousing processes. To promote digitalization, standardization for achieving information sharing, and visualization of task information such as human allocation and picking tasks dependent on each person’s implicit knowledge should be done, thereby to equalize the work quality and to optimize the consistent processes from freight transport to warehouse management and control.

Measures against Environmental Issues (Decarbonization)
In response to declaration by Japanese government for attaining carbon neutrality by 2050, use of electric vehicles for last mile logistics, generation of electricity by installing photovoltaic system at warehouses to consume in-house, and utilization of electricity derived from renewable energy can be promoted.

Noteworthy Topics

Ideal Scenarios for Logistics Industry toward 2030

Here are some insights into ideal scenarios for logistics industry looking ahead to 2030 from the viewpoint of long-distance transport, warehousing, and local distribution (home delivery), based on the target from now to 2030 set by the government and industry groups:

Long Distance Transport
As the measures against labor shortage, parallel efforts to utilize technologies and streamline transportation are projected to be accelerated. By 2030, self-driving trucks are expected to be operated at some sections of highways, which is likely to extend to arrangement of lanes exclusively for self-driving trucks at major highways in the future.

Simultaneously with such moves, promotion of cooperative transport, relay trucking, and modal shift in logistics industry are projected to be in place.

Warehouses
As deployment of robotic systems in progress from 2023 to 2030, optimization of entire warehousing is likely to be determined by AI rather than human workers. Complete automated warehouses are expected to appear at some warehousing businesses, shifting the warehousing designs from human workers to robots. Although it is difficult to reach to that point for small to middle-scale warehouses, they can use RaaS (Robot as a Service) i.e., subscription service of robots, a more casual way to use robots. These moves are likely to further save manpower and promote digitalization.

Local Distribution (Home Delivery)
While increased freight volume due to growing ecommerce and more frequent numbers o deliveries on account of increase in smaller parcels have continued, there is a possibility of an automated vehicle allocation system to be deployed as a means to aim higher efficiency in delivery to cope with the regulations to cap the working hours. In addition, to protect drivers who newly appeared as a sole proprietor, labor environment and safety measures should be organized and established as a system.
Electric vehicles used for delivery are also likely to increase.

*Cooperative logistics: The type of logistics where multiple companies share warehouses and logistics centers to cooperatively deliver freights.
*Relay trucking: A model for transport that takes long hours or long distances, where drivers are exchanged at relay points after covering certain distances during the freight transport. At the relay point, each of drivers can go back to where they started with their new freight, rather than keep on going for faraway destinations.
*Modal shift: A shift in the mode of freight transport from trucks and other vehicles to rail and ships, which have a smaller environmental impact.
*Last mile delivery logistics: Within the whole logistics, last mile refers to the range from the local, nearest delivery center to the final destination, i.e., consumers (B2C), or from the general consumers to another consumers (C2C).

Research Outline