Quantum Computer Market in Japan: Key Research Findings 2020
Yano Research Institute (the President, Takashi Mizukoshi) carried out a survey on the domestic quantum computer market, and found out the trend in technologies, the assessment of the influence to industries, and the future perspectives until FY2030.
The domestic quantum computer market size based on the sales at service providers is likely to attain 6,200 million yen in FY2020. The experimental demonstrations have been underway proactively in the industries of finance, chemical, ecommerce, manufacturing (especially for simulations), logistics, and in academic use, which is generating practical quantum computer applications including material computing and simulations. In the medical sector, quantum computers have started being used for demonstrations for simulating new coronavirus infections. Thus, the attempts for exploring applications across diverse industries have been increasing.
Exponential Market Expansion Depends on Increase in Applications and in User Utilizations
The domestic quantum computer market is projected to expand exponentially, but the prerequisite for this, in addition to hardware advancement and improved developing environment, are exploration of quantum applications to induce optimal hardware capabilities and attraction of increasing number of proactive user companies willing to utilize the computer.
For IT businesses, experimental demonstrations in cooperation with user- or venture companies are triggering the generation of quantum computing applications. Therefore, IT businesses are currently prioritizing experimental testing and verifications through communications with user companies, by which the utilization of the computer is expected to expand. They are also working on improvement of the usage environment. In addition to providing of SDK (software development kits) and unveiling of tools on GitHub, each quantum computer developer runs their media to provide accurate information and/or teaching aids on quantum computing/computers.
For user companies, Quantum Innovation Initiative Consortium (QIIC) launched at the end of July 2020, headquartered at the University of Tokyo has become an opportunity to involve in quantum computers, where multiple companies and organizations from finance, chemical, automobiles, and other industries have participated. As QIIC aims to accelerate quantum computing R&D activities in Japan by bringing together industry, academia, and government, it is expected to encourage the market growth through increasing utilization of quantum computers at user companies by giving opportunities to share practical quantum applications and by fostering the skills and expertise of the engineers.
The domestic quantum computer market size based on the sales at service providers is predicted to reach 230,000 million yen by FY2030.
By FY2025, in the proactive industries such as finance and chemical, some quantum computers, mainly ising machines, are likely to shift from demonstration phase to production phase. In other industries including energy, the experimental demonstrations are likely to target wider ranges from only specific tasks. The demonstrations utilizing quantum chemical calculations and quantum machine learning are likely to emerge and increase mainly in the chemical industry, aiming at employing NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum Computer that is expected to be available by the latter half of FY2025) for material development and simulations.
After FY2026, quantum computers may fully be applied for dynamic pricing in the financial sector, for high-precision simulations in the manufacturing industry taking advantage of numerical fluid dynamics and/or aerodynamic characteristics, and for recommendation engines in the ecommerce industry. As NISQ is projected to be available, experimental demonstrations and operations in production using NISQ are expected to be carried out in multiple industries from the latter half of FY2027, for example to explore new functional materials, to utilize in the basic studies of artificial photosynthesis technologies, to find out optimal energy mix or other advanced energy conservation in the energy industry, and for super-early diagnosis in the medical sector.
By FY2030, quantum computing is expected to be implemented for automotive battery development and for medical care that can lead to innovative treatment and other attempts, bringing about enormous impact to the society.
* NISQ is the abbreviation of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum Computer. It is a gate-based quantum computer positions as the phase prior to a universal quantum computer.
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