Summary of Research Findings

The Japanese paper and paperboard industry is set to contract for a third consecutive year in 2025. In the packaging segment, shipments of containerboard, boxboard, and other packaging papers have remained below prior-year levels. This decline is mainly driven by subdued consumer spending—reflecting ongoing price inflation—as well as a broader shift toward reduced packaging and sustainability initiatives.
At the same time, the graphic paper segment, including newsprint and traditional printing grades, is experiencing a sharper decline. This is largely due to the acceleration of digital transformation (paperless practices), alongside growing cost pressures prompting users to cut back on expenses.
The export landscape has also shifted unfavorably. Although 2024 saw a significant surge in trade, 2025 is projected to face a sharp reversal. The anticipated decline in outbound shipments is attributed to weakening market conditions and restrictive tariff environment.
With both domestic demand weakening and export conditions deteriorating, total shipments combining domestic sales and exports are projected to decline again.

Noteworthy Topics

Major Japanese Paper Makers Raise Prices Again in 2025 Amid Deteriorating Performance

Based on the consolidated results of major paper manufacturers for the first half of fiscal 2025 (April–September), most companies reported a decline in revenue, marking a reversal of the previous upward trend. While market prices remain elevated due to repeated price increases in prior years, weak shipment volumes have eroded these gains and weighed on overall performance.
The downward trend in pulp prices has placed additional pressure on corporate earnings. Paper manufacturers continue to struggle with offsetting the rising costs of logistics, labor, and equipment maintenance—expenses that are critical for sustaining operations at aging facilities and ensuring business continuity. Consequently, profit margins have fallen significantly compared to the same period last year, as the price revisions implemented across various product categories in 2024 yielded only a limited financial recovery.

In response to these persistent headwinds, manufacturers introduced further price increases across major segments in 2025, with the exception of newsprint. Because a significant portion of these adjustments were implemented in the fall, their impact on fiscal 2025 results is expected to be modest; however, they are projected to provide a more substantial contribution to earnings in fiscal 2026.
While additional price hikes risk further dampening market demand, they remain an essential measure for paper manufacturers seeking to restructure their operations and solidify the financial foundations necessary for profitability. Accordingly, manufacturers are likely to continue price adjustments intermittently as one of their key strategies.

Research Outline