Market Overview

The cumulative installed wind power capacity for FY2023 is projected to be 6.1 GW (excluding replacement projects), of which installation capacity for onshore windfarms (including both medium and small sizes) was expected to be 5.8 GW and offshore to be 0.3 GW.
This was estimated by considering the operational plans and FIT applications, and the commencement period for operation of installed capacity for the projects that underwent environmental assessment, in addition to an onshore windfarm that started the operation in Aomori prefecture.

Noteworthy Topics

Challenges to Increase Wind Power Applications

The government has touted to expand the renewable energy applications in the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan. Among renewable energy, wind power attracts attention onward for its expected role as the source of baseload* electricity.

In the course of decarbonization, wind power sources have high hopes at the phase of introducing and applying renewable energy in the entire society. Nevertheless, there are challenges for expanding the applications such as appropriately reducing time for environmental assessments and windfarm certifications, and reinforcing the power grid, but have been gradually taken measures.

*Baseload: Baseload power refers to the minimum amount of electric power needed to be maintained and supplied to the electrical grid at any given time, regardless of season or time.

Future Outlook

The cumulative installed wind power capacity is projected to reach 12.7GW (excluding replacement business) by FY2030, of which installation capacity for onshore windfarms (including both medium and small sizes) was expected to be 9.1 GW and offshore to be 3.6 GW.

Although onshore wind power generation projects require to reach consent with locals in the environmental assessment processes, some projects are facing oppositions. Therefore, whether the project operations can commence as forecasted are unclear. On the other hand, the forecast for offshore wind power generation projects considers lead time for deployment and the difficulty of using base ports for different purposes simultaneously, in addition to the prospects on installed capacity by the businesses chosen for promoted area projects under the Sea Areas Utilization for Renewable Energy Act. The cumulative installed wind power capacity forecast for FY2030 is considered feasible at this point.

Research Outline