Market Overview

The domestic bread and rolls market in FY2019 was valued at 1,578,600 million yen, 100.0% of the size of the previous fiscal year (based on the shipment value at makers). Positive growth was sustained, although the growth rate levelled off compared to that of FY2018, which was 101.3%. 
Despite the longest economic boom in the postwar period, there was no sign of rise in the annual average household consumption that triggers growth of the bread and rolls market, while total food consumption including bread and rolls stayed flat. However, a trend of “luxury Pullman loaves”, renewal of “best-seller English loaves” and roll out of “uncompromising products” at leading manufacturers changed the consumption of consumers that used to seek for lowest price for bread and rolls they buy, such as 100-yen loaf or private-brand English loaves. Nonetheless, the spread of COVID-19 infection from spring of 2020 had a huge impact on the bread and rolls market. While no one knows when the pandemic ends, various attempts are starting in anticipation of the post-corona era. 

Noteworthy Topics

Future Direction of Bread and Rolls Industry in the Post-Corona Era

Against the background of governmental decision on school closures and request for staying home, as well as pervasion of telework and restrictions of business trip at private companies, “at-home consumption demand” has been expanding in the bread and rolls industry. Accordingly, demand for bread and rolls served as a meal accompaniment, such as English loaves and table rolls, increased significantly especially at mass merchandisers and drugstores. 
Meanwhile, at convenience stores in the city areas, growing adoption of the stay-at-home and work from home declined the number of customers, diminishing demand for sweet buns (including savory rolls and Danish pastries), sandwiches, and baked rolls with cooked fillings. In addition to bakeries in city areas, commercial facilities like department stores and shopping malls, station stores, and stores along commuter routes/school routes near train stations are all facing financial difficulties stemming from store closures, shorter business hours, and decrease of public transportation users.

Future Outlook

Since Japan expects further population decrease in the for many years to come due to declining birthrate and aging, the bread and rolls market is likely to stagnate for the long-term. Moreover, given the fact that demand is on the rise in developing countries and weather has become unstable globally, it is assumed that supply instability of ingredients for bread and rolls, including wheat flour and oil, is a matter of concern.
On the other hand, market expansion opportunities are witnessed in sales of high-quality, value-added/hit products sold at high-price, and in increasing demand for bread and rolls as dinner accompaniment, such as French sticks and variety breads. If foreign workers are accepted and reform of immigrant policy proceeds, it may exert a positive influence on the bread and rolls market. 
Considering uncertainties including expansion of COVID-19, the bread and rolls market expects slight growth hereafter. The domestic bread and rolls market is projected to reach 1,622,500 million yen by FY2024 (based on the shipment value at makers). 


 

Research Outline