No.3269
Retail Market for 2030 in Japan: Key Research Findings 2023
By 2030 Retail Market Size to Fall by 14％ from 2022 to 114,977 Billion Yen
Yano Research Institute (the President, Takashi Mizukoshi) has conducted research on the retail market in Japan and has disclosed the perspectives for 2030 based on the analysis of the influential factors to the market and the trends by sales channel.
Market Overview
The domestic retail market size for 2022 is estimated to have reached 133,800 billion yen.
Though some industries, such as apparel, have failed to recover demand, expansion of retail market is projected to continue in 2022, because of consumption recovery from the corona crisis and returning inbound demand since the latter half of 2022,
Noteworthy Topics
Inbound Consumption (Travel Expenditure by International Tourists to Japan) for 2030
The “Tourism Vision Realization Program 2020” created by the Ministerial Council on the Promotion of Japan as a Tourism-Oriented Country, hosted by the prime minister with members including entire cabinet members, targets the number of foreign tourists to be 60 million by 2030.
If Japan successfully attracts 60 million travelers from abroad by 2030, the market size on inbound consumption for that year will expand to 9 trillion yen, calculated based on “the consumption by international visitors to Japan (*1)” in International Visitor Survey by Japan Tourism Agency.
*!) Source: Travel Consumption Trend by International Visitors to Japan (Annual Report 2019)
Future Outlook
As increase and decrease of population affect the domestic retail market, the forecast on domestic retail market size, using “Population Projections for Japan” by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, based on the Current Survey of Commerce by METI, is expected to decline to 114,977 billion yen in 2030, down by 14% from 2022.
By sales channel, the largest growth rate when compared to 2022 is projected to be attained by online retailing (ecommerce business). As retail industry presses ahead with OMO (Online Merges with Offline) or omnichannel strategies by aligning real stores with online retailing, aiming to improve customer services, the convenience of online retailing is likely to be higher furthermore.
On the other hand, however, shortage of truckdrivers that play an important role in logistics can diminish the volume of parcels physically deliverable toward 2030. Such inability to deliver goods despite demand can be the future hindrance for expansion of online retailing market.
*2) Omnichannel refers to the integration of physical and online stores and any other sale and distribution channels. It also refers to the environment that enables product purchases likewise regardless of whatever sales channel through channel integration.
Research Outline
2.Research Object： Domestic retailers including department stores, mass merchandisers, each of specialty stores, online retailers (ecommerce businesses), etc. and related organizations
3.Research Methogology： Face-to-face interviews (including online9 by expert researchers, indirect interviews via telephone or email, questionnaire, and literature research
The Retail Market
The retail market in this research targets consumer goods including durable consumer goods such as home appliances and large furniture, etc. Retailers refers to businesses selling goods to consumers such as department stores, mass merchandisers, each of specialty stores, online retailers (ecommerce businesses). The domestic retail market size forecast (that includes projection values) is the estimation calculated by Yano Research Institute, based on “Current Survey of Commerce” by METI and “Population Projections for Japan” by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
＜Products and Services in the Market＞
Products sold for individuals or for household consumption, and products sold in small lots or in small amount of money used for industrial purposes.
Published Report
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