Market Overview

This research calculates the size of the bread and rolls market with the focus on seven types: Pullman/English loaf, table roll, sweet bun and roll, savory bun and roll, Danish pastry, French bread, and sandwiches. The market size reached 1,662.9 billion yen in FY2023, marking a 4.8% increase from the previous fiscal year.

The bread and roll market is on the road of recovery from the plunge caused by the pandemic, experiencing a resurgence in demand.
Increased outing opportunities have fueled demand for affordable sweet and savory buns and rolls that can be eaten anytime, anywhere. As commodity prices continue to rise, cost-effectiveness is valued by price-conscious consumers, making packaged buns and rolls more popular.
Conversely, the Pullman bread market, which temporarily boomed during the pandemic, as a part of consumers’ efforts to make their time at home more enjoyable, has slowed down since the pandemic ended.

By channel, demand for bread and rolls from establishments of food service chains is reviving due to the normalization of social activities and the recovery of foot traffic. The return of inbound demand, including a growing number of foreign travelers and their substantial spending on tourism, has led to steadfast demand at hotels. These phenomena indicate structural changes in bread and roll consumption following the pandemic. The future growth of the bread and roll market seems to depend on the ability to respond to consumer needs, with price orientation and convenience being pivotal factors.

Noteworthy Topics

Rising Onigiri Prices and Rice Shortages Caused Savory Rolls to Gain Attention

Savory buns and rolls are characterized by a wide variety of appetizing shapes and sizes, including curry filled fried buns, yakisoba-filled rolls, and tuna-mayo buns, to name a few. Competition in the market is fierce, and individually packaged ones are available at room temperature.
Bakeries offer a wide variety of freshly baked, small-batch original products, which can differentiate themselves from major companies that use machines for most of the production processes to mass-produce bread and rolls. Bakeries excel at providing original, freshly made fillings.

In 2024, rice shortages and soaring prices led to a continuous increase in the price of onigiri, or rice balls, at convenience stores and mass merchandisers. Since then, bakeries and wholesalers have focused on savory rolls and buns, aiming to obtain substitute demand.

Future Outlook

The bread and roll market in Japan is expected to experience continued low growth due to an aging population and declining birth rates. There are concerns about shortages in wheat and oil supplies due to increased demand in emerging countries and to abnormal weather worldwide, both of which could lead to soaring prices.
However, multiple growth factors may boost the market, such as the launch of high-quality products with high unit prices, trending products that sell well, and growing demand for dinner loaves and rolls, including French bread. 
Taking these factors into account, the market is projected to grow moderately. The market size is forecast to reach 1,890.3 billion yen by FY2028, which is a 13.7% increase from FY2023.

Research Outline