Bread and Rolls Market in Japan: Key Research Findings 2023

Domestic Bread and Rolls Market Upturned in FY2021 after Experienced Corona Crisis

Yano Research Institute (the President, Takashi Mizukoshi) has carried out a survey on the bread and rolls market in Japan, and found out the market trends by product and retail channel, the trends at market players, and the future perspective.

Transition and Forecast of Bread and Rolls Market in Japan
Transition and Forecast of Bread and Rolls Market in Japan

Market Overview

The domestic bread and rolls market in FY2021 was valued at 1,535,400 million yen, 101.0% of the size of the previous fiscal year (based on the shipment values at manufacturers).

The market was in predicament in FY2020, as the corona crisis reduced the demand for bread wholesaling to food services, accommodation facilities, wedding banquet operators, etc., and also the number of bread and rolls consumers at urban convenience stores due to remote working and remote studying becoming normal. However, gradually relaxed behavior restrictions in FY2021 have resumed economic and social activities and restored the demand for bread and rolls, which led the market to upturn from the previous-fiscal year.

Noteworthy Topics

Product Development and Operations Responding to Fluctuating Consumer Demand

The bread and rolls market for FY2021 saw the boom of Maritozzo, an Italian traditional sweet bun filled with plenty of cream as well as a variety of fruit sandwiches that are filled with boldly cut fruits beautifully arranged to look beautifully when cut. There also were moves to utilize such fluctuating consumer demand.

Some businesses hammered out a strategy to seek beyond the end of the boom, and suggested a variety of unique versions of original Maritozzo, assuming the boom as transient. In addition, in the situation where corporate contribution in SDGs has been in the limelight, some bakeries produced smaller volume of fruit sandwiches than projected to be needed, in order to reduce food loss, as fruit sandwiches tend to have short consumption period. Some business operators showed efforts to develop products carefully, thereby to control the fluctuating consumer demand.

Future Outlook

For wholesale bakeries that mass produce bread and rolls by using machines in most of production processes and retail bakeries that bake and sell bread and rolls, it has become difficult to retain the retail prices only through corporate efforts due to the recent skyrocketing raw material cost. Many of such businesses raised the product prices after FY2022. In the wake of price rise, the growth of sales volume in some cases does not reach the growth of sales value. The price rise for bread and rolls is expected to continue hereafter, which may cause concerns over disaffection with bread and rolls or shifting to low-price products by some consumers.

In such a situation, consumers hereafter can be classified into three: Those that demand high-value-added products such as expensive Pullman loaf, those that accept price rise and continue buying products that they have been buying, and those economical people that estrange themselves from the products they have been buying once price rise occurs.

In particular, wholesale bakeries seem to be trying to obtain customers of all three types by developing products at prices suitable to each of the consumer groups, thereby to expand their sales.

When observing such market backgrounds, the bread and rolls market is likely to continue the slight increase, with the domestic market size by shipment value at manufacturer for FY2023 projected to reach 1,609,000 million yen, successfully exceeding 1,600,000 million-yen level.

Research Outline

1.Research Period: January to March 2023
2.Research Object: Retail and wholesalers bakeries producing bread, rolls, sandwiches, and other baked products
3.Research Methogology: Face-to-face interviews by expert researchers, survey via telephone, and literature research

The Bread and Rolls Market

The bread and rolls market size in this research is based on the shipment values at businesses, targeting those bread and rolls sold through following retail channels, and frozen bread doughs for use in the production processes of bread and rolls:
-Bakeries: Retailers and retail chain stores that sell bread and rolls baked within that store. Those in-store bakeries at supermarkets and department stores are included.
-Convenience stores
-Mass Merchandisers: Stores that sell bread and rolls procured from external bakeries. General supermarkets, food-exclusive supermarkets, and co-op stores are included.
-Independent retailers: Retailers that are owned by one or more people and sell goods made by other companies. As for baked goods, these retailers supply from major wholesale bakeries.
-School Cafeterias: Bread and rolls delivered at school cafeterias.
-Others: Other channels include food service providers like café & bakeries, restaurants/hotels, diners, office canteens, and online stores.

<Products and Services in the Market>

Pullman/English loaves (regular & small sizes), including white bread, raisin bread, walnut bread, wheat germ bread, etc. Table rolls: bun, parker-house roll, raisin roll, wheat germ roll, hamburger bun, etc. Sweet buns & rolls (buns or rolls with sweet fillings): Sweetened bean curd (anko) roll (bun), cream roll, melon-pan (sweet bun covered with cookie dough), beanut-cream-filled roll, etc. Savory rolls: Curry-filled donuts, sausage bun, roll with corn and mayo filling on top, etc. Danish pastries: Croissant, pains au chocolat, applie pie, etc. French bread: Baguette, thickened baguette, bour, pain d'epi Sandwiches and rolls (Cooked fillings sandwitched or filled between slices of large loaves or between halved rolls that are all-ready baked (rather not baked with unbaked doughs) chilled or room-temperature, which include Yakisoba roll, hamburger Frozen bread and rolls (for food services i.e. bakeries and hotels). Frozen rolls are shipped after they are molded, swollen, and frozen, or those frozen after being half-baked

Published Report

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