Market Overview

As the logistics market using drones and autonomous delivery robots in Japan is currently dawning, technological development, legislations, and building of service/business models have been underway, in order to shift from the current demonstration phase to the social implementation phase. The full-scale market formation is projected to be around FY2025.  

Use of drones and autonomous delivery robots in logistics are mainly needed for last-mile delivery.
Delivery by drones is developed chiefly in mountainous areas or remote islands where land transportation by trucks is difficult or inefficient but accessible via air.
2023 has seen the advancement in demonstrations for drone logistics in depopulated areas, in addition to multiple cases of shifts to social implementation in the regions that have repetitively demonstrated. By the end of 2023, in addition to Level 3 drone flight that is out-of-sight flights over uninhabited areas with supported persons and installation of signboard needed and Level 4 drone flight that is unmanned flights beyond visual line of sight in populated areas, new establishment of Level 3.5 that is in-between Level 3 and 4 has been announced. This is to propel commercialization of out-of-sight flights in depopulated areas. The authority aims the permission and approvement for Level 3.5 flight to take a day by FY2024. Therefore, after FY2024, until Level 4 flights are fully available in terms of legislation structure and aircraft conditions, Level 3.5 drone flight logistics is projected to be implemented.  

Service development and demonstrations by small, low-speed autonomous delivery robots have been conducted mainly in urban areas or residential areas, while those by middle-sized, middle-speed ones have been done in suburban areas. In April 2023, partial revisions to Road Traffic Act have been in effect, making delivery services by small, low-speed autonomous robots to be available. As the maximum speed for small, low-speed autonomous robots are 6kmh, their trading areas are generally within 1.5 to 2km from the delivery base. Currently, the system has just begun, so that the guidelines and rulemaking are likely to be performed together with specific discussions over commercialization. Based on the registration system, companies operating autonomous delivery robots are likely to increase gradually after FY2024.

Noteworthy Topics

Drone or Autonomous-Delivery-Robot Logistics Service Application Cases

Logistics utilizing drones or autonomous delivery robots can be categorized into those logistics businesses that use drones to partly replace their conventional transportation mode and those enterprises from other industries developing new logistics business.  

The most-used drone logistics services are those delivery services for daily necessities and food, followed by those for medicines, and others include transports of specimen and heavy objects.
The body of drones mostly used for delivery of daily necessities and food are multirotor drones, though depending on delivery areas and items to deliver.
For logistics service using autonomous delivery robots, there are an on-demand delivery service that delivers goods from retailers to the homes of customers, and other delivery services for food, medicines, etc. Deployment and demonstrations of autonomous delivery robots are underway for indoors, other than public roads, such as at commercial facilities, shops, offices, high-rise condominiums, etc.

Future Outlook

The logistics market size using drones and autonomous delivery robots in Japan based on delivery/ transportation fees is projected to reach 2,320 million yen by FY2025 and 19,830 million yen by FY2030.

The largest objective for implementing drones for logistics is for solving issues in depopulated areas.
Such areas with many old people tend to have severe problems of difficulty to shop, due to logistics difficulty. Logistics businesses find it hard to develop business in such areas, as it is not easy to secure profits because of inefficient delivery caused by small volume per long-distant delivery. Considering the entire efficiency according to each of regional statuses, drone logistics hereafter is likely to be underway as one of the factors of a sustainable logistics network combined with existing transportation methods. As the business of single drone logistics, it becomes viable in the future, as the cost of drone body is reduced and "one-to-many" operations are realized, lowering operating costs.

Logistics by low-speed small autonomous delivery robots is at the phase of business models currerntly being built, based on the demonstrations and short-term services that have been conducted, as well as on the user needs.

Because mass production is yet to be realized, the cost for robot bodies is expensive, which is one of the hurdles when conducting demonstrations. Just like the case of drones, it may be difficult to develop autonomous delivery robots as a stand-alone business, but it should rather grope for the business that can cover existing logistics, such as inefficient deliveries including deliveries at nighttime or early morning or deliveries with locational difficulties. By FY2030, the business models are likely to be built and robot bodies to be mass produced, which are projected to reduce the operational costs.
For middle-speed, middle-sized autonomous delivery robots, social implementations are likely to be underway centered on local cities by around FY2030, as legislations and rulemaking in place.

Research Outline