Market Overview

The domestic toy market as a total of 9 major categories for FY2022 attained 763,600 million yen, up by 6.8% from the preceding fiscal year (based on the shipment value of manufacturers). As a total of 8 major categories, i.e., excluding TV games (video games), the market size expanded to 423,600 million yen, up by 10.8% from the previous fiscal year. Although the influence of COVID-19 crisis was still observed in the first half of the fiscal year, as voluntary lockdown was lifted, ‘at-home consumption’ became sluggish. For this reason, the size of the jigsaw puzzle market, which grew markedly during the pandemic, scaled down by 12.8%, a double-digit drop for two consecutive years. On the other hand, the market of scale model kits/toys for hobbies grew strong by 17.1%. The market of trading card games also marked considerable year-over-year growth of 33.6%, underpinned by its solid popularity and a release of new title. Accordingly, the boys’ character & toys market grew significantly at 22.4% year-on-year, as well as the total value of 8 major markets. In view of the toy market as a total of 9 major categories (including TV games [video games]), despite the semiconductor shortage that hampered the growth of gaming console production in the first half of FY2022, it managed to exceed the preceding fiscal year’s level as the shortage resolved by the year-end sales season.

Noteworthy Topics

Increase of Capsule Toy Specialty Stores and Market Entrants

Large-scale capsule toy specialty stores operated by toy manufacturers and toy wholesalers are expanding. In addition to large-scale specialty stores, commercial facilities that suffered low occupancy rate during the COVID-19 crisis increased capsule toy machine installations to fill vacant spaces. The unit price of the capsule toy is low, but it requires little manpower to sell. Whilst labor shortage is often an issue, this has apparently encouraged facility owners to adopt capsule toy machines. These factors have led to a significant rise in the shipment volume of capsule toys at manufacturers.

The number of market entrants has been increasing since the COVID-19 pandemic, including those from different sectors, particularly amusement businesses. The number of items has also been increasing significantly. The continuous launch of new products is attracting customers, propping up the sales of the market.

Future Outlook

The size of the domestic toy market (based on the domestic shipment value at manufacturers) for FY2023 as a total of 9 major products is forecasted to rise by 3.5% from a preceding fiscal year to 790,500 million yen, whereas the market size as a total of 8 major categories (excluding video games) is expected to grow by 5.2% to 445.5 billion yen. Although COVID-19 was reclassified to Class 5 infectious disease and people’s flow recovered, the market trend remains the same: The demand continues to grow in the markets of toys for building scale models/toys for hobbies and the trading card games. Furthermore, considering the rapid recovery in the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan, and that toys are one of their most favored shopping items, we forecast that the market will continue to be strong in FY2023.

Research Outline