Market Overview

The size of the PAN-based carbon fibers market (based on the shipment volume of manufacturers in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the United Stated and Europe) was estimated at 96,820 tons in 2023, and projected to grow by 7.8% to 104,400 tons in 2024.  
In 2023, the PAN-based carbon fiber market experienced a significant decline due to reduced demand for CFRP used in wind turbine blades, as well as a drop in demand for CFRP for golf club shafts and fishing rods following the end of the oversupply that persisted through 2022. However, with inventory adjustments expected to be completed by 2024 and anticipated growth in demand for sporting & leisure goods and aircraft, the shipment volume of PAN-based carbon fibers is projected to improve.

Noteworthy Topics

Trends by Application

While it may still take some time for demand for wind turbine blades to grow, the market anticipates moderate expansion in applications such as air mobility (including aircraft and drones) and sporting & leisure goods (such as golf club shafts and fishing rods).
Demand for PAN-based carbon fiber for hydrogen pressure vessels and wind turbine blades is expected to rise alongside the shift toward a hydrogen-based society and the growth of renewable energy. The introduction and expansion of capacity in these applications are projected to occur sequentially from 2030, if not as early as 2028. 
In Japan, the introduction of smart factories and transformation of logistics are pressing due to the declining population, driven by a low birthrate and aging society. As industries require lighter, more durable, and automated industrial equipment, the demand for CFRP in industrial applications is expected to grow significantly.

Future Outlook

The PAN-based carbon fiber market is projected to grow steadily at a CAGR of 4.9% from 2023 to 2030 to reach 135,585 tons by 2030 (based on shipment volume of manufacturers). Major applications include sporting & leisure goods, aircraft, wind turbine blades, industrial equipment, hydrogen pressure vessel, drones and defense applications.

The market landscape has not changed since the 1970s, with three domestic manufacturers leading market, followed by manufacturers from the U.S., Europe, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries. Japanese manufacturers have been frontrunners in the market development, developing new advanced products underpinned by their technological capabilities.
However, in recent years, Chinese manufacturers are increasing presence, while the Chinese government positioned carbon fiber as a high-end new material. Japanese manufacturers are in high alert for the situation.
Domestic manufacturers need to continue embarking on developing high-grade carbon fiber and its applications, to be a step ahead of Chinese manufacturers. As Chinese manufacturers will initially focus on the domestic wind turbine application, it will be important for Japanese manufacturers to expand markets in other regions, such as Europe, the U.S., and Asia.
In the short term, the key to growth will be in capturing the demand for carbon fibers used in defense drones and aircrafts. In the medium to long term, we believe that catering to the needs of a broader range of applications, including hydrogen pressure vessels and wind turbine blades, will accelerate the market growth.

Research Outline