Dwelling and Non-Dwelling Construction Market Size Forecast

Dwelling Construction Market Size
The dwelling construction market size for FY2023 expects a decrease to 436,000 units, 92.9% of that of the previous fiscal year. The shrinkage is because of declining constructions starts for owned houses out of entire new housing starts. In addition to structural reasons such as the aging society with waning child population as well as diminishing numbers of households and population, unwillingness by consumers to buy their houses is affecting, as new house prices are hovering high due to skyrocketing material prices.
The dwelling construction market for FY2024 anticipates 433,000 units or 99.3% of the previous fiscal year, and 419,000 units for FY2025 or 96.8% of the size of FY2024. Together with construction material costs keeping high for the time being, specifications and improved functions to new houses due to mandatory compliance to energy saving standards will raise the new housing prices furthermore in FY2025. This cannot avoid disinclination for purchase by consumers, which is likely to continue.
In connection with soaring new housing prices, demand shift to secondhand housing, somewhat more affordable than new ones, also leads to diminishing of the new housing market.

Non-Dwelling Construction Market Size
The non-dwelling construction market for FY2023 expects a decrease to 440,000 thousand square meters (m2), 93.8% of the size of the previous fiscal year, the same level as that in COVID-19 crisis in FY2020. Although redevelopment projects in central Tokyo are in progress, construction investments to stores, factories, and accommodations are yet to be underway, which is the main reason for the market shrinkage.
The market size for FY2024 anticipates a rise to 45,000 thousand m2, 102.3% of the size of the previous fiscal year, and a decline to 44,000 thousand m2 for FY2025, 97.8% of the size of FY2024. Although there are construction projects for semiconductor plants or EV related factories in addition to redevelopment projects mainly in central parts of Tokyo looking to 2025, logistics facilities that have driven the non-dwelling construction market cannot expect major growth hereafter, as the investment eagerness to the facilities have slowed down.

Dwelling Construction and Non-Dwelling Construction in This Research
Dwelling construction (i.e., housing construction, or residential building construction) in this research refers to the total values of “dwelling buildings”, “associated dwelling buildings”, and “dwelling and industrial use combined buildings” that are categorized by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) in the construction starts statistics survey. The market size of dwelling construction has been calculated based on the housing starts by the number of units.
Non-dwelling construction refers to the total values of Office, Store, Factory and Work room, Warehouse, School building, Hospital, and Others that are categorized by MLIT in the construction starts statistics survey. The market size has been calculated based on the floor area for building starts.

Research Outline
1. Research period: December 2023 to March 2024
2. Research objects: Dwelling and Non-Dwelling construction.
3. Research about: Forecasting the market sizes for dwelling constructions and non-
    dwelling construction.
4. Research methodologies: Estimation by Yano Research Institute based on
    tabulation data from  “Building Starts Statistics" at MLIT. The actual data is
    based on statistic deliverables obtained from National Statistics Center, an
    independent administrative institution, under the statistics law.