Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Market: Key Research Findings 2022

Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Shipment Capacity in 2021 Rose to 371.1GWh, 220.9% on YoY

Yano Research Institute (the President, Takashi Mizukoshi) carried out a survey on the global automotive lithium-ion batteries market, and found out the trends by product segment, the trend of market players, and the future outlook. This press release discloses the transition and forecast of global automotive lithium- ion batteries market.

Market Environment-Based Forecast: Transition and Forecast of Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Market Size by xEV Type
Market Environment-Based Forecast: Transition and Forecast of Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Market Size by xEV Type
Governmental Policy-Based Forecast: Transition and Forecast of Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Market Size
Governmental Policy-Based Forecast: Transition and Forecast of Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Market Size

Market Overview

The estimated global automotive lithium-ion battery market size for 2021, based on the capacity, grew to 371.1GWh. The market expansion was associated with that of xEVs (i.e., electric vehicles [EVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs.]) The shipment capacity of lithium-ion batteries by xEV type was estimated as follows: 4.7GWh (168.2% on YoY) for HEVs, 32.2GWh (188.9% on YoY) for PHEVs and 334.1GWh (225.6% on YoY) for EVs.

Although the entire automobile market kept negative growth on a YoY basis for the past several years, the market of electric vehicles (PHEVs, EVs) has been exceeding each prior year mainly in China since 2020. While Tesla still has the strong presence in EVs, VW from Europe are growing the number of “ID.4” sold, following “ID.3”. Sales of low-capacity EVs in China are on the rise, following 2020.

Noteworthy Topics

Vehicle Electrification in Progress in U.S., Following Europe

In Europe, the next regulation for CO2 emissions from automobiles and light vans for 2025 and 2030 has been targeted to 59.4 g/km, sterner than that in 2021 (95 g/km) by 37.5%. In the Fit for 55 Package, the environmental measure package announced by the European Union in July 2021, the proposals for regulations have become ever stricter, as they revise the value mentioned above from a reduction by 37.5% to that by 55%, and they ban the sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles from 2035. On the other hand, there are moves to re-evaluate the subsidy policies, with announcements of subsidy elimination and reductions in maximum subsidy amounts.

In October 2020, China released “the Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Technology Roadmap 2.0,” stipulating that new cars sold must be eco-friendly (i.e. 50% of new cars must be new energy cars, chiefly EVs, and the other 50% should be HEVs including mild-hybrid electric vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles by 2035. China newly implemented a broad campaign for 26 automakers to create incentives for people in rural China to buy EVs, promoting the sales of low-capacity EVs. The subsidy for new energy vehicles is planned to finish at the end of 2022, but the Chinese government is reported to be in consideration for prolongation of tax relief for the purchase of new energy vehicles as of June 2022.

In the US, the Biden administration reexamined the fuel economy standard in December 2021 from what had been eased during the Trump administration, and announced new regulation that targets to achieve 55 mpg by 2026. The Biden presidency is showing its attitude to focus again on xEV promotions, as Presidential decree signed to target 50% of new car sales to be xEVs (PHEV, EV, FCV [fuel cell vehicle]) by 2030. In addition, for subsidy policy, proposals to increase the tax credit amount and to eliminate the cap on the number of units are under consideration.

With the announcement of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 in October 2020, Japan has for the first time moved toward slashing carbon dioxide emissions to zero within the next three decades. The country is considering regulating new sales of internal combustion engine cars to be zero by the mid-2030s. As can see from 37,500 million yen added as FY2021 supplementary budgets and 15,500 million yen included in FY2022 budget, there are moves to make the policy for electric vehicles (PHEV, EV, and FCV) to be more generous.

Future Outlook

The growth forecasts of the global automotive lithium-ion battery market have been carried out from the two different viewpoints, i.e. governmental policies and market environment, taking account of the xEV market environment.

The government-policy based forecast foresees relatively high growth rate as it anticipates global enhancement in environmental restrictions and EV promotion policies by each country, which entails xEV deployment at each automaker and each government to be in progress as planned, in association of the shift of electrification at automakers would smoothly be underway.

The forecast also considers that various problems against xEV deployment (charging infrastructure, etc.) are to be solved, and that mass production facilitated by introducing a dedicated platform makes the price of xEVs to be closer to that of internal combustion engine cars, popularizing PHEVs and EVs to a certain level. The global automotive lithium-ion battery market size from the government-policy viewpoint based on the capacity is forecasted as 1,228.4 GWh by 2025, and 2,020.4 GWh by 3030.

On the other hand, the market-environment based forecast foresees slower growth rate than that based on government policies, because it anticipates longer time to solve various problems for expanding xEV deployment and meeting the consumer demand for user-friendliness and affordability.

While China was ahead of the rest of the world to launch the market as a result of policy initiatives, the country in part shows a sign of breakaway from policy dependency. Still, the growth of PHEVs and EVs has an aspect of being driven by subsidies when observing from the global perspectives including Europe.

Now that uncertainties have been seen, such as price rise of automotive lithium-ion batteries stemming from soaring costs for components, issues of difficulty in component procurement caused by shortage in semiconductors, possibility of re-evaluation of energy strategy owing to the situation of Russia and Ukraine, global concerns for economic recession, etc., it is possible that the growth cannot be attained as initially expected.

For subsidies, China seems to be considering the continuation of tax relief for the purchase of new energy vehicles, while in Europe, discontinuity or shrinkage of subsidies are observed, which may lead the growth of xEV market to slowdown just like in China in the past. The global automotive lithium-ion battery market size from the market-environment viewpoint based on the capacity is forecasted as 808.1GWh by 2025, and 1,163.0GWh by 2030.

Research Outline

1.Research Period: December 2021 to June 2022
2.Research Object: Automakers, manufacturers of automotive lithium-ion batteries in Japan, Europe, China, and South Korea
3.Research Methogology: Face-to-face interviews (including online) by the expert researchers and literature research

About the Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Market

Automotive lithium-ion batteries are those installed in electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) for driving motors within automobiles.
The automotive lithium-ion battery market in this research refers to the market of lithium-ion batteries mounted in mild-Hybrid Electric Vehicles (SSV/12V/48V), HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs used as passenger cars and commercial cars. The market size until 2021 is based on the shipment of lithium-ion battery-equipped xEVs at xEV manufacturers. The market size in and after 2022 is based on lithium-ion battery capacity calculated from production of xEVs.

<Products and Services in the Market>

Lithium-ion batteries for xEVs (i.e., Electric vehicles [EVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs],

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