Global Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Shipment Capacity in 2020 Rose by 25.9% to 167.5GWh
Yano Research Institute (the President, Takashi Mizukoshi) carried out a survey on the automotive lithium ion batteries market and found out the trends by product segment, the trend of market players, and the future outlook. This press release discloses the transition and forecast of global automotive lithium ion batteries market.
The estimated global automotive lithium ion batteries (hereafter LiB) market size for 2020, based on the capacity, attained 167.5GWh, 125.9% of the size of the previous year. The market expansion was connected with that of xEVs (i.e., Electric vehicles [EVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs.]) The shipment capacity of LiB by xEV type was estimated as follows: LiB for HEVs reached 2.36GWh (120.3% on Y-o-Y), LiB for PHEVs achieved 17.0GWh (183.6% on Y-o-Y), and LiB for EVs grew to 148.1GWh (121.6% on Y-o-Y.)
In the COVID-19 calamity, the global automobile market as a whole showed negative growth in 2020, but the market of xEVs exceeded the previous-year results chiefly in Europe and China. For HEVs, the sales volume increased in Europe, North America and China, while PHEVs mainly grew in Europe. For EVs, Tesla’s Model 3 continued showing stable sales just like the previous year, while low-capacity EVs started selling extremely well in China.
Supportive Policies Worldwide Accelerate Promotion of Electric Vehicles
In addition to its strictest target in the world for 2021 baseline, the European Union has passed legislation in March 2019 that mandates automakers selling cars in Europe to cut their average fleet CO2 emissions by 37.5 percent by 2030. This makes it impossible for automakers to pass the criteria if they deal in only clean diesel, HEVs and PHEVs. Automakers are required to increase the manufacturing ratio of zero-emission EVs that do not produce CO2 and other greenhouse gases. In 2020, Europe has added some economic recovery packages to stimulate purchase of EVs against the economic recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic. This helped the market size of PHEVs and EVx to exceed that of the previous year. However, there is no denying that the market is dependent on subsidies, and how well the market growth can maintain hereafter is a concern.
In October 2020, China has released “the Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Technology Roadmap 2.0,” stipulating that new cars sold must be eco-friendly (i.e. 50% of new cars must be new energy cars, chiefly EVs, and the other 50% should be HEVs including mild-hybrid electric vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles.)In 2019, the “Measures for Passenger Cars CAFC (corporate average fuel consumption) and NEV (new energy vehicle) Credit Regulation” policy, or more widely known as the Dual Credit (DC) policy, has been enacted to promote NEVs. China has also proposed a separate list of "low fuel consumption passenger vehicles” i.e. the vehicles with fuel consumption lower than CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) target, requiring half the credit values of conventional gasoline/diesel cars. Although electric vehicles are the main target for the promotions, attention to HEVs seems to be gradually rising.
North America has relatively soft regulations for low fuel consumption than other areas as it has been behind the global tendency of making sterner regulations, due to stronger influence of automakers to the government. The Trump Administration was planning for even relaxed standard to be in effect in March 2020. However, after 2021, the Biden Administration is regarded to shift to stricter regulations once again. In the U.S., each state has pressed ahead with its own regulation such as California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate that requires automakers to sell a certain percentages of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, which is driving the entire EV market. Although no nationwide target exists at this point, the Biden government is expected to prepare one from hereon.
With the announcement of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 in October 2020, Japan has for the first time moved toward effectively slashing carbon dioxide emissions to zero within the next three decades. The country aims to regulate new internal combustion engine cars to be zero by the mid-2030s. Accordingly, Tokyo has updated its own goal of the new car sales to be 100% xEVs by 2030 from the previous goal of 50% xEVs. (Both nationwide and city-wide goals assume HEV to be one of xEVs.)
The growth forecasts of the global automotive LiB market have been carried out from the two different viewpoints, i.e. governmental policies and market environment, taking account of the xEV market environment.
The government-policy based forecast foresees relatively high growth rate as it anticipates that xEV deployment at each automaker and each government would be in progress as planned, as business shift at automakers would smoothly be underway, encouraged by global enhancement in environmental restrictions and EV promotion policies by each country.
The forecast also considers that various problems against xEV deployment (charging infrastructure, etc.) are to be solved, and that mass production facilitated by introducing a dedicated platform makes the price of xEVs to be closer to that of internal combustion engine cars, popularizing PHEVs and EVs to a certain level. The global automotive LiB market size from the government-policy viewpoint based on the capacity is forecasted as 835.1GWh by 2025, and 1,809.2GWh by 3030.
On the other hand, the market-environment based forecast foresees slower growth rate than that based on government policies, because it anticipates longer time to solve various problems for expanding xEV deployment and meeting the consumer demand for user-friendliness and affordability.
As for the xEV market, the growth is regarded to be driven by subsidies, especially so for EVs and PHEVs. Despite the efforts for reducing vehicle prices (i.e. dedicated platforms, cell materials for cost reduction, technological development of cells and battery packs, etc.,) the economic downturn stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic is somewhat diminishing the automobile market as a whole, making automakers difficult to develop PHEVs as well as EVs because they are less profitable than conventional internal combusting engine cars. The sluggish economic conditions may also affect the purchase behavior by consumers to stagnate, which can fall short of the initial target. The global automotive LiB market size from the market-environment viewpoint based on the capacity is forecasted as 422.9GWh by 2025, and 764.4GWh by 2030.
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