Global Number of ADAS & Autonomous Driving Systems Embedded Estimated to Grow to 82,499 Thousand by 2030, Becoming Standard Feature in Japan, US, Europe and China
Yano Research Institute (the President, Takashi Mizukoshi) has conducted a survey on the global market of ADAS and autonomous driving systems, has found out the market overview, the trend of adoption, and the business strategies at respective makers, and has forecasted the global number of ADAS and autonomous driving systems to be introduced by 2030.
The global number of ADAS and autonomous driving systems embedded in 2018 has been 23,854 thousand, a rise by 24.3% from the previous year.
When observing those systems by automation level, the number of the ADAS level-1 systems adopted has achieved 21,148 thousand, occupying 88.7% of the global market, as an AEB (autonomous emergency braking) or a collision avoidance system having become a standard feature. On the other hand, the number of the level 2 systems embedded into automobiles to simultaneously automate steering and breaks/accelerator operations has attained 2,704 thousand, indicating that the level 2 systems have become widely accepted since 2018 from high-end to middle-class automobiles primarily by Japanese and European makers. Currently, most of such level 2 systems are the combination of LKS (lane-keeping support) and ACC (adaptive cruise control) functions to allow the automobile to keep lane-centering, but some of the systems practically used for high-end automobiles include those that can change the lanes automatically through the specific operations by the driver, and to park automatically after the driver gets off the vehicle to remote-control the operation via a key or a smartphone.
This research includes “level 2+” defined by Yano Research Institute as the level that enables the hands-off function by using DMS (driver monitoring systems) and that shows robustness of V2X (communications between vehicles and everything else) by using mapping functions. Since 2017 General Motors (hereinafter referred to GM) have started adopting the function of “hands-off” or cruise automation by using DMS and HD (high-definition) mappings which fall into our “level 2+”function, though available only on highways. As of 2018, the mass-produced model equipped with the level 2+ system is only one, and is by GM. Therefore, the number of the level 2+ systems embedded is currently 2,000, but is likely to expand primarily into high-end cars in the markets of Japan, US, and China toward 2020.
The automation level of the driving support systems expected to grow the most in 2020 and beyond is level 2. The global number of level 2 and level 2+ systems introduced in total is estimated to be 5,958 thousand by 2020, and to leap forward to 32,898 thousand by 2023 in which the number is likely to exceed that of level 1.
In 2020 and beyond, the level 2 systems are projected to be increasingly adopted in the middle-class vehicles, the most manufactured class, in Japan, US, and Europe. In addition, the market of the level 2 systems is likely to be launched in China.
The number of mass-manufactured automobile models equipped with the level-2+ systems is only one, which is by GM as of 2018. However, the hands-off or cruise automation function, though available only on highways, is likely to be widely introduced to high-end automobiles and the systems using V2X and mapping information are to start being adopted. Therefore, the global number of the level-2+ systems is to expand to 273 thousand by 2020 and 5,029 thousand by 2023.
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