Due to the limited reserves and eccentric geographical locations, rare metal could be an issue of resource nationalism, and “depletion” of resources has become a matter of global concern. With these concerns of the industry, future trends in the demand of rare metals are attracting attentions as they are used in the next-generation automobiles such as hybrid electric vehicle and electric vehicle, key energy saving products, and components of key electrics products.

The demand of rare metals in three demand sectors being reviewed in this research, automobile, key energy-saving and electronics products, in 2009 was 198,800 tons, and expected to increase considerably to 272,200 tons in 2015 and to 295,400 tons in 2020, reaching to 1.5 times of the demand in 2009. The composition of the market by demand sector in 2009 was 88.4 percent for automobile, 8.7 percent for energy-saving products and 2.9 percent for electronics products, the automobile being accountable for about 90 percent of the total demand. This market composition is expected to remain until 2020 without any major changes.

As to the mineral species, about 90 percent of the total demand in 2009 was made up of 5 mineral species consisting of Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Nickel (Ni), Magnesium (Mg), and Cobalt (Co).

It is expected that the demand will increase for many mineral species from now on, especially driven by energy-saving products including next-generation automobile (lithium-ion battery, motor, etc.), LED, solar cell, fuel cell, wind-power generation and so forth.

As to mineral species, greater growth of demand is expected for Nickel (Ni), Tungsten (W), Cobalt (Co), Vanadium (V), Magnesium (Mg), Lithium (Li), Palladium (Pd), Rhodium (Rh), Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy), and Indium (In). And, therefore, activities on the stable supply of these rare metals will become important from now on.

As to the automotive industry, existing automobiles such as gasoline and diesel engine powered vehicles on which a good deal of rare metals are being used, as well as the next generation vehicles including auto parts, molds and tools are reviewed in this report. The demand of rare metals in this sector is focused on the additives for alloy metals. Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), and Nickel (Ni), indispensable for standard and special steels, especially, account for the major portion of demand. Also, platinum group used in three-way catalyst and oxygen sensor will remain important although the volume is limited. In the meantime, the demand of Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy), and Lithium (Li) for the use in next-generation vehicles appears to be in an increasing trend. (*: Plug-in hybrid vehicle) 

As to the key energy-saving products, solar cell, lithium-ion battery, LED, fuel cell and wind power generation are reviewed in this research. The rare metal demand in 2009 was centered on the lithium-ion battery. Especially, Co, Mn, and Ni used in the positive electrode materials account for the major portion of demand. Currently, as Japanese positive electrode material manufacturers have overwhelming shares in the global market, the domestic demand is increasing as well. From now on, the demand of rare metals is expected to increase along with the full-scale commercialization and expansion of the new products such as fuel cells, solar cells and LED.

As to the electronics products, mobile phone, PC, DSC, TV, washing machine, refrigerator, and air conditioner are reviewed in this research. A great number of rare metals are being used in electronics products, ranging from Co which is used in large quantity to those used as additives in very small quantity for controlling the part quality and performance.

The demand of rare metals for this sector in 2009 was centered on the capacitors, plating, battery, motor and HDD used for mobile phone, digital camera, PC, TV, washing machine, refrigerator and air conditioner. In the future, while the demand of Ni will increase centered on capacitors, the demand of Indium (In) which is used for transparent electrode material is likely to increase more than ever, as applications such as touch panel or e-book will become popular. Since 2002–2003, “indium depletion issue” has been pointed out. As a possibility of running into indium shortage is undeniable, there are nation-wide activities on the material composition change to avoid using indium, reduction of indium use volume by reducing the thickness of indium layer, and the development of alternative materials.