RESEARCH SUMMARY -Latest Outcome of Our Research-
04/23/09
Research Findings on the Car Electronics Market in Japan 2009
- Steadily growing car electronics: key issues are “low price eco-car”, “X-by-Wire” and “attractive design & HMI (Human Machine Interface)” -
Research Outline
Yano Research Institute has conducted a study on the domestic car electronics market as described below.
1. Research period: October 2008 to March 2009
2. Research targets: Automakers, car electronic equipment manufacturers (50 firms in total)
3. Research methodologies:
Face-to-face interviews with relevant personnel, supplemented by interviews via telephone and e-mail, and literature researches.
<What is car electronics market?>
In this research, 35 major car electronics products (Table 2) are divided into 5 major sectors consisting of powertrain, chassis, body, passive safety and active safety for review and analysis.
Summary of Research Findings
1. World passenger car market and the deign of future vehicles
World passenger car market in 2009 will experience the market shrinkage in the US, Japan and European countries, by 30% in the first half and 10% in the latter half consecutively compared to the preceding year, which however, is expected to bottom out in/around June 2009. In the meantime, the passenger car market in 2009 for the emerging countries led by China and India is expected to be better than preceding year, if not more. Thus, the total world passenger car market in 2009 is estimated to be 80 to 90% of the preceding year.
However, it is expected to take until 2011 or 2012 for the passenger car market to recover to the sales volume equivalent to 2007, with the majority of future increase in the emerging countries. Under the market situation as described, passenger cars marketed in 2011-2012 will be low priced and highly fuel efficient in consideration of sales in the emerging countries, in addition to the compatibility with environmental regulations of each countries in the world.
As a general trend in the world, passenger cars are shifting from gasoline engine vehicle to hybrid vehicle, and to electric vehicles - from large size premium vehicles with high price and low fuel economy to low price, highly fuel efficient compact cars. Car electronics technologies are expected to develop along with those movements.
2. Overview of the car electronics (domestic production volume base) market
The average annual growth rate for the car electronics market (domestic production volume base) turned out to be 5.3% from 2003 to 2014, and 4.4% from 2009 to 2014 in this research. Although the market will shrink in the 2 years, 2008 and 2009 which are considered to be the bottom of the world passenger car market, the car electronics market in total is expected to grow steadily during the period from 2009 to 2014. As the number of electronics components per vehicle will increase in the future, the car electronics market (domestic production volume base) will not shrink in proportion with the decrease of vehicle sales in volume.
The average annual growth rate from 2009 to 2014 by sector turned out to be 4.4% for powertrain, 8.9% for chassis, 7.3% for body, 7.7% for passive safety, and 14.0% for active safety. The highest growth rate for the active safety may indicate the fact that car electronics for achieving the active safety systems will be required continually as a demand of the age, even if the passenger cars marketed in the world will become smaller in size.
3. Future perspectives
The world passenger car market, currently in a contraction tendency, expected to start showing some signs of growth in 2011 or 2012. Toward the revitalization of the passenger car market in the future, it will be vitally important to develop the car electronics technologies suitable for the vehicles which will become dominant at that time. Electronic systems, such as keyless entry, automatic headlamp control and ABS/ESC currently available only on premium vehicles, or even the pre-crash safety system, may be installed on the compact cars in the future to make them attractive to the potential users.
Further, it is necessary to comply with the environmental regulations in the world for the reduction of emissions, and to achieve the fuel economy improvement. In addition, in order to sell these passenger cars in the emerging countries, further price reduction must be achieved and sustained. Thus, low price hybrid cars and electric vehicles will be developed, while the installation of electronic control CVT on the gasoline engine cars will be further advanced.
It will also become important to design the HMI (Human Machine Interface) in the cabin more attractive, through which the driver and passengers communicate with the vehicle. As smart phone has expanded the market rapidly with its attractive UI (User Interface), it will be very important to design the cabin interior and HMI more attractive, easier to use with higher user-friendliness. Car electronics technologies for achieving those objectives will be strongly demanded.
* X-by-Wire is the group of technologies for replacing the mechanical vehicle control systems by electronic control systems, such as brake by wire, shift by wire, steering by wire, etc.
Published Report
Report Title: Car Electronics Market 2009 - 2010
*The information provided in the "Research Summary" is what is as of the date of announcement and could be altered or renewed without any prior notice.
